Not that it wouldn’t prevent that...just that we didn’t know yet. That has quickly morphed into, “It won’t protect against you infecting other people.” Which is also untrue. We just don’t know. We are attempting to communicate uncertainty, but it’s like people can’t hear it.
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Long (and a bit hard to follow) thread from a few days ago on just this.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1339619847907520514 …
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Just commenting to say that Hank, Chana, Trevor, and Zeynep all in the same thread is what I love about Twitter. I don't know if you all know each other somehow but I know you all from different places.
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The problem we have in this country is a serious lack of an informed citizenry. As a population we are incapable of grasping nuance. A lack of trust in science, and of the educated in general, has fueled an environment where pundits spewing forth propaganda have become Truth.
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I think a big problem is that when you watch a crime show and the court has “no evidence” that means they can’t convict or whatever. But in science having “no evidence” just means it hasn’t been researched or found yet
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This is a great example of experts and public having very different priors (one informed, one not), such that the same statement on uncertainty gives rise to totally different conclusions.
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Until 1959, we didn't know whether or not the Moon had a back side.
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As a layperson, "waiting for more data" seems like a very good phrase to acknowledge uncertainty without evoking doubt. Makes me think "we don't know" should always be followed by an emphasized "yet"
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Yes! This! People have twisted the “we don’t have the data to prove it yet” to mean “it doesn’t work”
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As you can see, I was concerned about this even in December, and the messaging has gotten a bit better but as you note, it has still turned into "it doesn't work" partly because of how "we have no evidence" communicates in everyday language plus deliberate misinformers.
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