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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Jason Abaluck‏ @Jabaluck 20 Dec 2020

      For example, I find the one-shot arguments very persuasive, but I'm not qualified to assess the evidence for how a 2nd shot impacts the overall time path of immunity (among other things). If it substantially lengthens immunity, I could be completely wrong.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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    2. Jason Abaluck‏ @Jabaluck 20 Dec 2020

      Ideally, outsiders with big public platforms should contact and discuss with insiders as @zeynep did with @michaelmina_lab.

      1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Jason Abaluck‏ @Jabaluck 20 Dec 2020

      Outsiders routinely use normative disagreements as an excuse for dismissing experts, but this is usually cherry-picking. If your argument is effectively, "They know more than me but I am better at morality than them", you probably just need to learn humility.

      1 reply 1 retweet 10 likes
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    4. Jason Abaluck‏ @Jabaluck 20 Dec 2020

      Bioethicists sometimes stake out extreme and crazy positions. I don't agree with Harald Schmidt here (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/05/health/covid-vaccine-first.html …), and I think Zeke Emanuel is bonkers for not wanting to live past 75https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/ …

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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    5. Jason Abaluck‏ @Jabaluck 20 Dec 2020

      But like any other large community, public health researchers come from a variety of backgrounds. If they generally agree about something, it's probably not because they all embrace some bonkers position.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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    6. Jason Abaluck‏ @Jabaluck 20 Dec 2020

      Outsiders overstate the degree of uniformity in normative assumptions among experts. e.g. easy to say, "Public health researchers were too hesitant to run challenge trials" ignoring that prominent voices like @mlipsitch were calling for just that.

      1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
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    7. Jason Abaluck‏ @Jabaluck 20 Dec 2020

      That said, existing *policies* (as opposed to expert consensus) are the result of a messy political process and might be driven by bonkers outliers or by groups competing for influence.

      2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
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    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 20 Dec 2020
      Replying to @Jabaluck

      Don't like this kerfuffle (!) so I'm wary, but "expert consensus" vs outsiders is a Twitter artifact. I'm listening to ACIP deliberations: 1-Recs changed from draft to now; 2-Are being challenged/considered as I type; 3-WHO has different(ish) recs; 4-Other countries have recs...

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 20 Dec 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @Jabaluck

      And many things don't have one correct answer (funding/value dependent) & societal buy-in is very important so transparency/debate is important. Within the last three hours I heard many objections from *within* the ACIP meeting so "trust the experts" doesn't have a single answer.

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
    10. Jason Abaluck‏ @Jabaluck 20 Dec 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      There are many questions where expert consensus is a real thing, e.g.: https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/free-trade/ …. Agree this isn't a case where the experts all agree. Would be nice to have better data on the distribution of opinions among epi people a la IGM survey.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 20 Dec 2020
      Replying to @Jabaluck

      Not a huge fan of those polls though including the one you just sent because too reductionist. But for this particular question—judging by papers, other countries etc.—the previous draft was an outlier, current one is less so but ACIP itself has a lot of challenge to it *within.*

      10:40 AM - 20 Dec 2020
      • 3 Likes
      • Nathan Poe Amy Michael Chesnut
      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Jason Abaluck‏ @Jabaluck 20 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Not sure we disagree (if at all). When experts disagree, this doesn't make expertise any less necessary for a comprehensive evaluation. But the best expert analyses capture a tiny fraction of relevant points, so lots of room for outsiders to contribute as well.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 20 Dec 2020
          Replying to @Jabaluck

          Yeah, we agree (except I don't like polls too much for this). It's fraught, for sure. With a pandemic, there is no neat inside/outside for many topics (given impact and lack of expert consensus) but some sub-part of a broad topic often has a narrow expertise that to be respected.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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