Advocating the potential for a single dose of #SARSCoV2 vaccines @zeynep @michaelmina_lab https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/18/opinion/coronavirus-vaccine-doses.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage …
The points for studying this are good but the public message to many for skipping the 2nd dose is troubling when we don't really know what protection that provides
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Replying to @EricTopol @zeynep
I think the message is to start the trials. Today. What do we have to lose? We are giving two doses of vaccines to the 100M people already infected. We simply are, yet again, placing individual-level optimization far above Public Health optimization.
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FDA would have approved 50%. That said, the efficacy after day 14 (when immunity starts kicking in) to 28 for Moderna was 92% but OBVIOUS CAUTION small sample big confidence interval hence the need for a real trial. I think we could calculate acceptable efficacy vs. double dose.
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Replying to @zeynep @matthewherper and
Let's say we run the trial and 80-90% holds up and have 50 million doses allocated to younger, essential workers. The question would be vaccinate 25 million (25 million get 95% but 25 million get 0% efficacy) versus 50 million with 80-90%. Trade-off either way, given shortage.
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How fast would we need to get the trial done?
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Given that it looks like the shortages will last through 2021, the sooner the better. If the global shortages are over, the question is less urgent and different (though still would be good to know). We've done fractional dosing for yellow-fever before, because of shortages.
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