Important caveat from @DhruvKhullar: "we know for sure that the vaccines...prevent severe illness in almost all people who are inoculated...we’re not yet certain that the vaccines can prevent people from becoming infected or infecting others."https://www.newyorker.com/science/medical-dispatch/how-getting-vaccinated-will-and-wont-change-my-behavior …
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Replying to @michaelluo @DhruvKhullar
I like how the rest of the article makes the case I heard from every immunologists that I checked with that these vaccines almost certainly *will* dampen transmission, likely a lot, and lists some of the evidence we already have on how and why. That message isn't heard enough.
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Agree that messaging matters a lot. Flipping this around, if we could show unequivocally that the vaccines prevent transmission (in an elegant, fast study),
@zeynep do you think this could exponentially improve uptake? Or only marginal difference ... (deleted/fixed earlier reply)1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
I think it would make a difference and I hope we get on that ball soon (there's already some ongoing stuff). I understand why this wasn't a primary endpoint, but my sense is that it's having a real impact. For example, such headlines, of all things, have been weirdly common.pic.twitter.com/QWYWylhOw9
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Replying to @zeynep @k_stephensonMD and
I think even being out there to *emphasize* that they will likely dampen transmission, but we will know for sure and if so—and how much—in a few weeks to a month or so would help, and people who're wearing masks now will very likely continue to do.
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Replying to @zeynep @k_stephensonMD and
(PS. Transmission/infectiousness was one of the early questions to Moderna in today's FDA hearings and they seem to be saying they'll get back to us as early as next month with data!).
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They have that little bit of one month data for PCRs at Dose 2, so perhaps they are referring to the seroconversion rate after a few months. That's a pretty good measure of infection, but not technically secondary transmission. Unless they are doing stealth contact tracing!
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I don't know! Didn't say. I think it's likely the former, not the latter, and the odds we're getting a cluster-randomized trial among a low-risk group is pretty low, too, so I think that's what we'll get but still it would be good. (Though we're also losing the placebo arm soon.)
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