I like how the rest of the article makes the case I heard from every immunologists that I checked with that these vaccines almost certainly *will* dampen transmission, likely a lot, and lists some of the evidence we already have on how and why. That message isn't heard enough.
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Great message - also I think important to consider that asymptomatic individuals are less likely to transmit than those with symptoms, so the vaccine may 1) prevent infection, but also 2) *may* lower risk of transmission in those who still get infected.https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1003346 …
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Yes. I've been asking around & have read those papers, of course. Yes, let's wait for more data but I haven't yet heard a single expert make the case that 95% efficacy in symptomatic disease prevention plus prelim 2/3 drop even in asymptomatic infection won't cut infectiousness.
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Replying to @zeynep @BogochIsaac and
The problem is people don't feel confident in saying "look these are the indicators but here's why we gotta wait" and think that if we say that, everyone will go all reckless. In reality, I think not communicating the nuance/data is what leads to dismissal and recklessness.
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Totally agree. We can just be open and honest about what we know about transmission, and *carefully/tactfully* extrapolate this to vaccination while we wait for more data.
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Yes! We need to wait a bit more, even a few weeks or months, is an excellent and durable message, and also a lot more likely to take than the "vaccines will not make a difference in your lives maybe for another year or more" message that is being inadvertently spread right now.
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Replying to @zeynep @BogochIsaac and
Btw I wrote this in my piece today. People misunderstand the whole marshmallow experiment/delay thing. Willpower is not divorced from hope and social conditions—and evidence. And we have evidence! These vaccines should call for celebration, not gloom. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/12/wait-until-march/617410/ …pic.twitter.com/54e7YhKzU4
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Replying to @zeynep @BogochIsaac and
Who is calling for gloom? Many scientists have acclaimed this as one of the greatest achievements in human history, including myself on local news. See
@EricTopol feed yesterday. Scientists sticking to the data rather than endorsing PH guidance based on speculation isn't gloom.1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes -
It's really a totally unfair accusation to level at people who have worked very hard to use the best data available to combat this pandemic. You have consistently displayed an urge to get ahead of the data and I'm sorry scientists won't endorse that, but there's a reason not to.
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Replying to @stgoldst @BogochIsaac and
It's not an accusation of malice.
@EricTopol can feel free to chime in if I'm "ahead of the data" in an unwarranted fashion. I watch for that, as one should, and it's been a year where I'm merely ahead of positive guidelines because I try hard to stick to data and don't oversell.2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
Right now, there's widespread perception that these vaccines will not prevent infectiousness (rather than, they may well do so but we'll know more shortly) that life will not change even in 2021, and an anti-vaxxer message going wild, unopposed, on that. This is reality.
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Replying to @zeynep @BogochIsaac and
I have seen a lot of messaging that by mid-2021 we can get substantially back to "normal". Can we do better getting that out? Of course! Does the fact that it hasn't 100% permeated everyone's thinking mean the message is no change indefinitely? No it does not.
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Fauci is among those who have said we can get back to normal in 2021. Many have told people to expect widespread vaccination by July. Many scientists are hailing the vaccines as an incredible accomplishment.
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