Important caveat from @DhruvKhullar: "we know for sure that the vaccines...prevent severe illness in almost all people who are inoculated...we’re not yet certain that the vaccines can prevent people from becoming infected or infecting others."https://www.newyorker.com/science/medical-dispatch/how-getting-vaccinated-will-and-wont-change-my-behavior …
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Replying to @michaelluo @DhruvKhullar
I like how the rest of the article makes the case I heard from every immunologists that I checked with that these vaccines almost certainly *will* dampen transmission, likely a lot, and lists some of the evidence we already have on how and why. That message isn't heard enough.
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Great message - also I think important to consider that asymptomatic individuals are less likely to transmit than those with symptoms, so the vaccine may 1) prevent infection, but also 2) *may* lower risk of transmission in those who still get infected.https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1003346 …
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Yes. I've been asking around & have read those papers, of course. Yes, let's wait for more data but I haven't yet heard a single expert make the case that 95% efficacy in symptomatic disease prevention plus prelim 2/3 drop even in asymptomatic infection won't cut infectiousness.
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Replying to @zeynep @BogochIsaac and
The problem is people don't feel confident in saying "look these are the indicators but here's why we gotta wait" and think that if we say that, everyone will go all reckless. In reality, I think not communicating the nuance/data is what leads to dismissal and recklessness.
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Replying to @zeynep @BogochIsaac and
Often the reason for avoiding nuance is because bad faith arguments pop up using your own words against you (out of context). I think we've also seen those bad faith statements will be fabricated if convenient, so might as well put the nuance out there for individuals to assess.
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Yeah, there's no avoiding the bad faith stuff. The answer is more nuance, not less. The anti-vaxxers are running with "vaccine doesn't prevent infectiousness so why vaccinate the young"—an incorrect message that works because we don't communicate the actual full nuance ourselves.
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Replying to @zeynep @TanelMichael and
Our response to that appears to be "well the young can get sick, too" which is correct but not that effective because people see the statistics, and there is now a lived-experience of tens of millions of infections. People know what's likely and what's rare. Plus, they're young!
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