Important caveat from @DhruvKhullar: "we know for sure that the vaccines...prevent severe illness in almost all people who are inoculated...we’re not yet certain that the vaccines can prevent people from becoming infected or infecting others."https://www.newyorker.com/science/medical-dispatch/how-getting-vaccinated-will-and-wont-change-my-behavior …
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Replying to @michaelluo @DhruvKhullar
I like how the rest of the article makes the case I heard from every immunologists that I checked with that these vaccines almost certainly *will* dampen transmission, likely a lot, and lists some of the evidence we already have on how and why. That message isn't heard enough.
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Well, it's still an untested (yes the data may exist but still internally) hypothesis where the consequences of being publicly wrong could be extremely grave. Not something I think should be part of any messaging campaign.
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But what we have isn't silence on the topic or, better yet, "we are going to know more soon." The public is perfectly capable of understanding the correct message, which is that we have some idea and some data, but not enough to relax and will know more soon.
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Since the beginning, the public health messaging has too often conflated "we don't fully know yet, but here's what the indications are" with "we have no idea" (not true) or "it won't happen". This has gravely weakened our warnings when we did make them.
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If this is a reference to the immunity issue, it's different. With respiratory viruses there's actually very little if any precedent for vaccines reliably preventing infection. We may be in new territory which would be great! But makes extrapolating from past experience dangerous
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This is not an area where I think it's helpful for scientists to give their best guess, because our knowledge here is very very thin.
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So masking at population level for the foreseeable future — not just for the next 6 months?
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Your interpretation of the message that there is "no change for the foreseeable future" is exactly why I'm concerned. That's what's being communicated, I'm afraid, and it is so counterproductive that it's maddening. We will know more shortly, but every indication so far is up.
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Replying to @zeynep @RepAmWatch and
No. There are minimal indications so far. A partial reduction in asymptomatic infection after Moderna dose 1. How would you determine who can stop wearing a mask? I replied that we will know more soon.
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And some indication from the Oxford international trials, which were conducted with moderate competence at best.
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