Important caveat from @DhruvKhullar: "we know for sure that the vaccines...prevent severe illness in almost all people who are inoculated...we’re not yet certain that the vaccines can prevent people from becoming infected or infecting others."https://www.newyorker.com/science/medical-dispatch/how-getting-vaccinated-will-and-wont-change-my-behavior …
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Well, it's still an untested (yes the data may exist but still internally) hypothesis where the consequences of being publicly wrong could be extremely grave. Not something I think should be part of any messaging campaign.
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But what we have isn't silence on the topic or, better yet, "we are going to know more soon." The public is perfectly capable of understanding the correct message, which is that we have some idea and some data, but not enough to relax and will know more soon.
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Great message - also I think important to consider that asymptomatic individuals are less likely to transmit than those with symptoms, so the vaccine may 1) prevent infection, but also 2) *may* lower risk of transmission in those who still get infected.https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1003346 …
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Yes. I've been asking around & have read those papers, of course. Yes, let's wait for more data but I haven't yet heard a single expert make the case that 95% efficacy in symptomatic disease prevention plus prelim 2/3 drop even in asymptomatic infection won't cut infectiousness.
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Agree that messaging matters a lot. Flipping this around, if we could show unequivocally that the vaccines prevent transmission (in an elegant, fast study),
@zeynep do you think this could exponentially improve uptake? Or only marginal difference ... (deleted/fixed earlier reply) -
I think it would make a difference and I hope we get on that ball soon (there's already some ongoing stuff). I understand why this wasn't a primary endpoint, but my sense is that it's having a real impact. For example, such headlines, of all things, have been weirdly common.pic.twitter.com/QWYWylhOw9
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