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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Dec 2020

      Given the data over the last year, and shown in this thread, I will be eternally perplexed if the US doesn't choose to vaccinate the elderly first and foremost, along with those who take care of them directly. Check out the attached prioritization of Wales, which makes sense. https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1336841338923278336 …pic.twitter.com/TphcF78tvO

      74 replies 284 retweets 1,102 likes
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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Dec 2020

      I'd venture that countries that vaccinate the elderly first and foremost (starting with the oldest, working down to maybe ~65) and those who take care of the elderly are going to fare way better than any other method. Yes, the shortage is forcing trade-offs but here we are.

      11 replies 19 retweets 243 likes
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    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Dec 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Carlo Dallapiccola

      Yes, states will have their own plans, and I guess we will do this badly in many places.😢Everyone deserves the vaccine, but not everyone is at equal risk for death and severe disease. Age is such an overwhelming risk factor compared with everything else.https://twitter.com/CarloDallapicc1/status/1339255465549639684 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Carlo Dallapiccola @CarloDallapicc1
      Replying to @zeynep
      The US is not monolithic in how it is approaching vaccination prioritization (in fact, it is not monolithic in almost any way). Each state has its own plan. This is the MA plan, and you can see it deviates widely from the Wales plan: pic.twitter.com/5Kd5rjyDyh
      11 replies 26 retweets 144 likes
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    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Dec 2020

      And yes, of course, transmission is a consideration (hence the need to quickly vaccinate those who take care of the elderly, too). Another sad paper will be written in a ~year: excess mortality rates and suffering in places that did not prioritize vaccination according to risk.

      5 replies 18 retweets 145 likes
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    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Dec 2020

      Here's a recent paper with realistic data, looking at scenarios through detailed modeling. Their conclusion: "those 60y and older should be prioritized to minimize deaths" & "this recommendation is robust because of the dramatic differences in IFR by age." https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.08.20190629v2.full.pdf …pic.twitter.com/2u1rK2f4fS

      11 replies 22 retweets 132 likes
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    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Dec 2020

      Well I guess it would be in line with the rest of this pandemic if some—may well be many—places in the United States managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of impending victory even with a vaccine that’s 95% efficacious.

      8 replies 17 retweets 169 likes
      Show this thread
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Dec 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Dan Diamond

      Everyone deserves protection, but if we do not prioritize vaccination by actual risk, which basically means prioritizing by age and vaccinating the elderly first, it may well be the greatest, most consequential mistake United States does in a year full of very very bad ones.https://twitter.com/ddiamond/status/1339417666143080451 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Dan DiamondVerified account @ddiamond
      Teachers, firefighters and camp counselors all say they should be next in line to get coronavirus vaccinations. The question is who’s most “essential,” @rachel_roubein @Briannaehley write. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/16/covid-vaccine-lobbying-447275 …
      8:04 PM - 16 Dec 2020
      • 62 Retweets
      • 286 Likes
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      15 replies 62 retweets 286 likes
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        2. Max Erickson‏ @maxerickson 16 Dec 2020
          Replying to @loafingcactus @zeynep

          The population of very high risk elderly is small enough that it isn't even a calculation. Once you get everybody over 70 it maybe gets harder, but only then.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Bleeding Heartland‏ @LauraRBelin 16 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @AlecMacGillis

          If we think it's important to have kids in school, we absolutely need to vaccinate teachers and school staff.

          4 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Dec 2020
          Replying to @LauraRBelin @AlecMacGillis

          After the people who are at high-risk are vaccinated, sure. As many countries have shown, it’s possible to open schools before vaccination.

          1 reply 0 retweets 13 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. The OG Gobacker‏ @EuroHistProf 16 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @AlecMacGillis

          Why start making rational decisions now?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Firthermor‏ @firthermor 16 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          I have not heard much debate by states or the federal government about the weighting of other factors (implicit values) when deviating from vaccinating by risk. Instead, I hear about vaccinating health care workers ahead of higher-risk individuals, which will lead to more deaths.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Nathan Scandella‏ @enscand 16 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          And, quite frankly, except where they’re in the same building, HCWs should not get vaccines before long term care residents. LTC is literally half our deaths. 2+ orders of magnitude above HCWs in per capita death rate.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. George Mokray‏ @gmokery 16 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Meat packers and other such agricultural workers.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Death will not release you‏ @7leaguebootdisk 16 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Well, and how much they spread it or are exposed, like health care workers. Not sure where retail and other customer contact positions fit.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Waiting for Omega‏ @kyduchess 16 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          What of the incarcerated? We have millions in prison. Not vaccinating them imho is cruel and inhumane.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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