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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Dec 2020

      Given the data over the last year, and shown in this thread, I will be eternally perplexed if the US doesn't choose to vaccinate the elderly first and foremost, along with those who take care of them directly. Check out the attached prioritization of Wales, which makes sense. https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1336841338923278336 …pic.twitter.com/TphcF78tvO

      74 replies 284 retweets 1,102 likes
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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Dec 2020

      I'd venture that countries that vaccinate the elderly first and foremost (starting with the oldest, working down to maybe ~65) and those who take care of the elderly are going to fare way better than any other method. Yes, the shortage is forcing trade-offs but here we are.

      11 replies 19 retweets 243 likes
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    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Dec 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Carlo Dallapiccola

      Yes, states will have their own plans, and I guess we will do this badly in many places.😢Everyone deserves the vaccine, but not everyone is at equal risk for death and severe disease. Age is such an overwhelming risk factor compared with everything else.https://twitter.com/CarloDallapicc1/status/1339255465549639684 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Carlo Dallapiccola @CarloDallapicc1
      Replying to @zeynep
      The US is not monolithic in how it is approaching vaccination prioritization (in fact, it is not monolithic in almost any way). Each state has its own plan. This is the MA plan, and you can see it deviates widely from the Wales plan: pic.twitter.com/5Kd5rjyDyh
      11 replies 26 retweets 144 likes
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    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Dec 2020

      And yes, of course, transmission is a consideration (hence the need to quickly vaccinate those who take care of the elderly, too). Another sad paper will be written in a ~year: excess mortality rates and suffering in places that did not prioritize vaccination according to risk.

      5 replies 18 retweets 145 likes
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      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Dec 2020

      Here's a recent paper with realistic data, looking at scenarios through detailed modeling. Their conclusion: "those 60y and older should be prioritized to minimize deaths" & "this recommendation is robust because of the dramatic differences in IFR by age." https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.08.20190629v2.full.pdf …pic.twitter.com/2u1rK2f4fS

      10:05 AM - 16 Dec 2020
      • 22 Retweets
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      • AZ / bernard marx 🔇 CJ Alexander Michael Chesnut A Vinay Gorur loki maelorin 🏳️‍⚧️🏳️‍🌈 (they) Dream Chaser 🚀⚡ * Shabby Tigers
      11 replies 22 retweets 132 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Dec 2020

          Well I guess it would be in line with the rest of this pandemic if some—may well be many—places in the United States managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of impending victory even with a vaccine that’s 95% efficacious.

          8 replies 17 retweets 169 likes
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        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Dec 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Dan Diamond

          Everyone deserves protection, but if we do not prioritize vaccination by actual risk, which basically means prioritizing by age and vaccinating the elderly first, it may well be the greatest, most consequential mistake United States does in a year full of very very bad ones.https://twitter.com/ddiamond/status/1339417666143080451 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Dan DiamondVerified account @ddiamond
          Teachers, firefighters and camp counselors all say they should be next in line to get coronavirus vaccinations. The question is who’s most “essential,” @rachel_roubein @Briannaehley write. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/16/covid-vaccine-lobbying-447275 …
          15 replies 62 retweets 286 likes
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        2. Yohannes Shiferaw‏ @YohannesShife14 16 Dec 2020
          Replying to @CowFan01 @zeynep

          not true. actually covid is more deadly across all age groups. flu is also highly skewed with age so you have to compare age by age. and the reason why schools are closed is because they are clearly vectors for spread.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Show replies
        1. Wanting better‏ @cschneider8224 16 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          I think if more folks understood that we cannot meaningfully stop spread with the initial doses we have, it would be easier to see that the priority must be preventing death.

          0 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
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        1. Kate von Goeler  🦜‏ @kvongoeler 16 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          What’s inexplicable is that the CDCs own modeling showed that prioritizing 65+ saved lives (never modeled prioritizing 75+ or 80+ which are smaller groups), and yet they’re totally ignoring it and pushing even the oldest of the old to the back of the line. https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2020-10/COVID-Biggerstaff.pdf …pic.twitter.com/BWk3Hk5zMh

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. Lesley‏ @lesnla 16 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          This is all excellent, but even Wales is not including family caregivers who are unpaid and working full time to care for their loved ones. We seem to have been forgotten across the board.

          0 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
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        1. Dave  🌵 🚴‍♀️ 🎸‏ @HikerDave57 16 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          That sounds great to this 63-and-a-half-year-old, currently standing in line at 287,000,000th place according to the New York Times calculator.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. Yohannes Shiferaw‏ @YohannesShife14 16 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Just to keep it simple IFR for 85+ =10% IFR for 20 less than 0.01% Thats roughly a factor of 1000. Makes sense to prioritize the aged.

          2 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
        3. Lucio Martelli‏ @LucioMM1 16 Dec 2020
          Replying to @YohannesShife14 @stewak2 @zeynep

          It's even more skewed than that when you check for comorbidities. Deeply broke and fragile 88y old 30%, healthy 12 y old less than 1 in 50k

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation

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