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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Dec 2020

      Given the data over the last year, and shown in this thread, I will be eternally perplexed if the US doesn't choose to vaccinate the elderly first and foremost, along with those who take care of them directly. Check out the attached prioritization of Wales, which makes sense. https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1336841338923278336 …pic.twitter.com/TphcF78tvO

      74 replies 284 retweets 1,102 likes
      Show this thread
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Dec 2020

      I'd venture that countries that vaccinate the elderly first and foremost (starting with the oldest, working down to maybe ~65) and those who take care of the elderly are going to fare way better than any other method. Yes, the shortage is forcing trade-offs but here we are.

      8:33 AM - 16 Dec 2020
      • 19 Retweets
      • 243 Likes
      • CJ Alexander Michael Chesnut Vinay Gorur Dream Chaser 🚀⚡ James Clark 📈📉¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Tedective Mal Ponumbra Trump & GOP murdered 857,000+ 🇺🇸 🌊
      11 replies 19 retweets 243 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Dec 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Carlo Dallapiccola

          Yes, states will have their own plans, and I guess we will do this badly in many places.😢Everyone deserves the vaccine, but not everyone is at equal risk for death and severe disease. Age is such an overwhelming risk factor compared with everything else.https://twitter.com/CarloDallapicc1/status/1339255465549639684 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Carlo Dallapiccola @CarloDallapicc1
          Replying to @zeynep
          The US is not monolithic in how it is approaching vaccination prioritization (in fact, it is not monolithic in almost any way). Each state has its own plan. This is the MA plan, and you can see it deviates widely from the Wales plan: pic.twitter.com/5Kd5rjyDyh
          11 replies 26 retweets 144 likes
          Show this thread
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Dec 2020

          And yes, of course, transmission is a consideration (hence the need to quickly vaccinate those who take care of the elderly, too). Another sad paper will be written in a ~year: excess mortality rates and suffering in places that did not prioritize vaccination according to risk.

          5 replies 18 retweets 145 likes
          Show this thread
        4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Dec 2020

          Here's a recent paper with realistic data, looking at scenarios through detailed modeling. Their conclusion: "those 60y and older should be prioritized to minimize deaths" & "this recommendation is robust because of the dramatic differences in IFR by age." https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.08.20190629v2.full.pdf …pic.twitter.com/2u1rK2f4fS

          11 replies 22 retweets 132 likes
          Show this thread
        5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Dec 2020

          Well I guess it would be in line with the rest of this pandemic if some—may well be many—places in the United States managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of impending victory even with a vaccine that’s 95% efficacious.

          8 replies 17 retweets 169 likes
          Show this thread
        6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Dec 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Dan Diamond

          Everyone deserves protection, but if we do not prioritize vaccination by actual risk, which basically means prioritizing by age and vaccinating the elderly first, it may well be the greatest, most consequential mistake United States does in a year full of very very bad ones.https://twitter.com/ddiamond/status/1339417666143080451 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Dan DiamondVerified account @ddiamond
          Teachers, firefighters and camp counselors all say they should be next in line to get coronavirus vaccinations. The question is who’s most “essential,” @rachel_roubein @Briannaehley write. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/16/covid-vaccine-lobbying-447275 …
          15 replies 62 retweets 286 likes
          Show this thread
        7. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Joshua Sharp‏ @JoshuaSSharp 16 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Vaccinating health care workers in the first wave makes sense if you're worried about keeping hospitals open. I don't have the numbers, but I would guess there are many more elderly people than health care workers.

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Joshua Sharp‏ @JoshuaSSharp 16 Dec 2020
          Replying to @JoshuaSSharp @zeynep

          Distribution is also a problem that is easier solved in health care workers than the general elderly population.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Azeem Azhar‏Verified account @azeem 16 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          I disagree with this. Older healthcare workers should be prioritised. And the the elderly can be protected by vaccinating their support staff. HCWs need to know they can worry without risks of illness or isolation.

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Dec 2020
          Replying to @azeem

          Older ones, yes. That's a double risk category. But I assume you haven't been looking at HCW risk rates and practices lately.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. arrakis runs on duncan‏ @dowfordays 16 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Shouldn’t tho the staff of senior care facilities, regardless of age be priority 1AAA given their proximity to such vulnerable population w/ massive spread potential

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Dec 2020
          Replying to @dowfordays

          Yes, elderly and those who take care of them directly.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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