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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Dec 2020

      Moderna data is out. At day 28—before dose two—disease prevention efficacy is 92.1% [CI: 68.8%, 99.1%] AND 2/3 fewer asymptomatic infections. Data is small & short-term hence my earlier piece on need for immediate trial for single dose for low-risk groups. https://zeynep.substack.com/p/vaccines-and-decision-making-with …pic.twitter.com/fidQnWPoUQ

      15 replies 172 retweets 684 likes
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    2. Babak Javid‏ @javid_lab 15 Dec 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      Understand your point, but these data can and only give information for immunity for 14 days. Is it surprising that immunisation with single dose gives robust protection for 14 days after onset of adaptive immunity? Unfortunately, gives NO information (+ve or -ve) about d28-90.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Dec 2020
      Replying to @javid_lab

      Hence the need for trial (which we would have been months into had we started when we got the data, early November at the latest). I'm going to call in @michaelmina_lab on the "NO information" part as he's been emphasizing that we do have some information—just not enough.

      1 reply 2 retweets 8 likes
    4. Babak Javid‏ @javid_lab 15 Dec 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @michaelmina_lab

      on the moderna data? I have no objection to a trial, in fact, it's a good idea, since younger people won't be in line for the vaccine for months anyway...but realistically, that means we'll have data in 6 months...in meantime, immunise younger with 2 doses if resources?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Dec 2020
      Replying to @javid_lab @michaelmina_lab

      Though if we had the resources, we wouldn't need to be having this conversation. Six months from now, we'll also be doing grim excess mortality due to vaccine shortage calculations (not just the United States, but globally). I agree it's all thorny.

      9:43 AM - 15 Dec 2020
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      2 replies 1 retweet 8 likes
        1. Babak Javid‏ @javid_lab 15 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @michaelmina_lab

          Globally, we won't solve the issue with these mRNA vaccines, that's just the reality. But in US, if vaccine efficacy holds up in phase IV, mortality should decrease 80-90% by immunising a fraction of the population. Hence my caution in promoting unknown efficacy single dose.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 15 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @javid_lab @michaelmina_lab

          On vaccine strategy mistakes, I think the low-hanging fruit right now is actually prioritization errors. I've seen plans putting people who smoke or are obese putting on equal footing with people over 65.

          4 replies 1 retweet 14 likes
        3. David Ridley‏ @RidleyDM 15 Dec 2020
          Replying to @WesPegden @zeynep and

          I have also seen plans that put essential workers (not just HCWs) ahead of over-65s. That seems to me a grave error.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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