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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Dec 2020

      Moderna data is out. At day 28—before dose two—disease prevention efficacy is 92.1% [CI: 68.8%, 99.1%] AND 2/3 fewer asymptomatic infections. Data is small & short-term hence my earlier piece on need for immediate trial for single dose for low-risk groups. https://zeynep.substack.com/p/vaccines-and-decision-making-with …pic.twitter.com/fidQnWPoUQ

      15 replies 172 retweets 684 likes
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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Dec 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Omkar Venkatesh

      Exactly—for both Pfizer and Moderna effects kick in after the first two weeks . See linked chart above. Very encouraging numbers. The companies and presumably the FDA had these numbers in early November. We'd have been almost halfway through a trial.https://twitter.com/OmkarGV/status/1338874594900455427 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Omkar Venkatesh @OmkarGV
      Replying to @zeynep
      Important clarification -- 92% efficacy is for between 14-28 days after dose 1. Immediately after the first dose the vaccine hasn't had time to kick in yet.
      5 replies 14 retweets 114 likes
      Show this thread
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Dec 2020

      The concerns are about durability of immunity and also high-risk groups. The former can be resolved with a trial and the latter can be addressed by sticking to the proven—and efficacious beyond almost all early hopes—schedule for those groups.

      1 reply 6 retweets 66 likes
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      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Dec 2020

      Plus, the US is planning to hold off vaccinating half the people *right now*, keeping the second dose for them in the freezer merely in case of production hiccup. At a minimum, can we discuss vaccinating as many a possible now, given a few days off doesn't seems a terrible risk?

      8:04 AM - 15 Dec 2020
      • 16 Retweets
      • 125 Likes
      • Samantha FP James Tinged Words 180gramvinyl Acroman39 Justin Braun david morrison Laura Henderson Duygu Altay klarname, MSc
      5 replies 16 retweets 125 likes
        1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Dec 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Emil

          To make sure they cleared the efficacy bar and to ensure durability of immunity. Who knew things would turn out this well? Who wants an under-powered vaccine? We're operating under a lot of uncertainty here and these are the first mass mRNA vaccines.https://twitter.com/EmilSkandul/status/1338876560909152256 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          EmilVerified account @EmilSkandul
          Replying to @zeynep
          What's the reasoning for why they didn't pursue a single dose trial to begin with?
          3 replies 8 retweets 89 likes
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        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Dec 2020
          Replying to @mcelhearn

          How? We will have vaccinated twice as many and the production is already scheduled for the booster. Let's assume there's a hiccup and a delay of a few days. The data above very very strongly suggests it wouldn't even be detectable. (Immunity *may* wane long term, not in days).

          3 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
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        1. very bad I.N.T.E.L.L.I.G.E.N.C.E.‏ @verybadintel 15 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          at the very least, split the difference? start with 3/4, put 1/4 in reserve and see how production holds up?

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        1. Sponson‏ @sponson 15 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Seems to indicate lack of confidence in the vaccine production or supply chain, fear of shortage or stoppage

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Richard H. Ebright‏Verified account @R_H_Ebright 15 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          The policy should be, but unfortunately, is unlikely to be: (1) Vaccinate twice as many with single dose now. (2) Provide second dose to all later.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. unique indemnifier‏ @fmd4cp 15 Dec 2020
          Replying to @R_H_Ebright @zeynep

          Is it known if the length of time between the first and second dose matters should it diverge from the trial's? Like, is the second dose likely to be as effective if it comes four months after the first?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Richard H. Ebright‏Verified account @R_H_Ebright 15 Dec 2020
          Replying to @Aintropy @zeynep

          In Moderna trial, second dose was day 28. In Pfizer trial, second dose was day 21. Data show that 3- and 4-week intervals work indistinguishably and suggest differences on scale of weeks have small effects. (But differences on scale on months likely have larger effects.)

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Utiquely‏ @utiquely 26 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Sounds good in theory - but I wudnt risk it until production gets properly off the ground - these first ones are already guinea pigs - not fair to take 2nd half of their dose

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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