Currently, May-July 2021 is my best estimate for when new infections and deaths will become minimal, allowing society to return to normal. It's been almost a year since the pandemic first began, and we can finally see the light at the end of the tunnel.
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Many assumptions have to be made to generate these estimates. I detail all of them in the write-up linked above. As usual, I must mention that if any of the assumptions do not hold, then the results may be drastically different (e.g. if vaccine rollout is faster than expected).
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An obvious but important assumption is that a majority of Americans will choose to take the vaccine by year-end 2021. Unfortunately, this is not a confident assumption, and hence we must all do our best to ensure that this assumption will hold true.
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Despite the vaccine in the near horizon, I estimate ~40 million additional people will still be infected between now and next summer, resulting in ~200,000 additional reported deaths. A ballpark estimate of the total US COVID-19 official death toll is 500,000 (+/- 100k).
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With all of the technological advances & scientific breakthroughs we have achieved as a society over the past 100+ years, we are still at nature's mercy when it comes to a pandemic. It's been a humbling realization, and I hope we can learn from these lessons for the future.
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Replying to @youyanggu
That is depressing. I'd love to see versions with higher distribution/uptake of vaccines. Do you assume there may be effects of seasonality?
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Replying to @zeynep @youyanggu
Also, the vaccine rollout is age-prioritized, assume that's in the CFR assumptions?
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Replying to @zeynep
1) I can look into trying scenarios, though if we go down that path there may be hundreds of different scenarios. If vaccine uptake is faster than expected I may just adjust the main model. 2) I incorporate seasonality. 3) I incorporate age-prioritized rollout for CFR.
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Replying to @youyanggu
Right. Yes, variations are endless but your schedule and the US claim is quite divergent. I'm not saying we'll manage. But it's notable. The plan is 50 million vaccinated by end of January. You don't get to that point till May.
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Replying to @zeynep
1) I think that's not the correct plot. The bottom plot shows total vaccinations, which gets to 50M by beginning of April. 2) I believe the US claim is "we expect to have enough doses to vaccinate 50M by end of Jan". That doesn't necessarily mean that 50M will get vaccinated.
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I guess we'll see. There's Pfizer and Moderna both likely rolling out soon, and I guess I'm hoping it will be fast implementation.
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Replying to @zeynep
I hope so too. I'll look into updating the rollout schedule.
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