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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 10 Dec 2020

      I launched a new page that shows the path to US COVID-19 herd immunity: http://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/ … It's built on the assumption that herd immunity will be achieved via vaccination and natural infection. Tl;dr version: I estimate a "return to normal" by June/July 2021.pic.twitter.com/2HwOqgtQqg

      132 replies 388 retweets 1,419 likes
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    2. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 10 Dec 2020

      The underlying methodology is a simple model that simultaneously simulates daily vaccinations and new infections through 2022. By May/June 2021, I estimate vaccinations to exceed 1 million people per day as they become available to the general public.pic.twitter.com/yPGHXmzQLo

      3 replies 6 retweets 78 likes
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    3. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 10 Dec 2020

      By mid-summer 2021, I estimate roughly 1/2 of the population have been vaccinated & 1/3 of the population have been infected. After accounting for overlap/loss of immunity, this amounts to ~60% of the population possessing immunity to the virus, sufficient for herd immunity.pic.twitter.com/xyKz7nfZgT

      12 replies 13 retweets 92 likes
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    4. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 10 Dec 2020

      Currently, May-July 2021 is my best estimate for when new infections and deaths will become minimal, allowing society to return to normal. It's been almost a year since the pandemic first began, and we can finally see the light at the end of the tunnel.

      3 replies 19 retweets 140 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 10 Dec 2020

      Many assumptions have to be made to generate these estimates. I detail all of them in the write-up linked above. As usual, I must mention that if any of the assumptions do not hold, then the results may be drastically different (e.g. if vaccine rollout is faster than expected).

      1 reply 5 retweets 71 likes
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    6. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 10 Dec 2020

      An obvious but important assumption is that a majority of Americans will choose to take the vaccine by year-end 2021. Unfortunately, this is not a confident assumption, and hence we must all do our best to ensure that this assumption will hold true.

      4 replies 4 retweets 102 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 10 Dec 2020

      Despite the vaccine in the near horizon, I estimate ~40 million additional people will still be infected between now and next summer, resulting in ~200,000 additional reported deaths. A ballpark estimate of the total US COVID-19 official death toll is 500,000 (+/- 100k).

      13 replies 35 retweets 145 likes
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    8. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 10 Dec 2020

      With all of the technological advances & scientific breakthroughs we have achieved as a society over the past 100+ years, we are still at nature's mercy when it comes to a pandemic. It's been a humbling realization, and I hope we can learn from these lessons for the future.

      22 replies 23 retweets 227 likes
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    9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @youyanggu

      That is depressing. I'd love to see versions with higher distribution/uptake of vaccines. Do you assume there may be effects of seasonality?

      6 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
    10. District AI‏ @districtai 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @youyanggu

      I took a hard look at this yesterday when he initially posted it. That was my only real issue with it. I believe there will be a much quicker vaccine distribution rate. I guess the only other issue is if vaccines are distributed correctly that deaths will decrease quicker.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @districtai @youyanggu

      US is projecting 50 million vaccinated by the end of January.https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-us-cases-15-million/ …

      1:45 PM - 10 Dec 2020
      • 1 Like
      • District AI
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. District AI‏ @districtai 10 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @youyanggu

          Yeah he has immunity from vaccination far lower than that by end of January but of course many caveats apply when ppl speak of vax. Does that mean fully vaccinated? First dosings? Fully vaccinated + 7 days? Def think it will be helpful to codify the language around this.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 10 Dec 2020
          Replying to @districtai @zeynep

          We assume it takes 14 days after someone takes the first dose to gain immunity. It's all in the assumptions but there are a lot of them to read through.

          1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
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