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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020

      Pfizer reports "52.4% efficacy" for single dose but that includes the first seven days, before things kick in, when most new infections happened. At 10-12 days, the chart (eyeballing, no underlying data yet) looks ~80-85% efficacy. Unpleasant trade-off but reality is unpleasant.

      21 replies 48 retweets 430 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified)‏ @yellingatwind 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      80% for 2x as many people is still a whole lot better than 95% under the current plan. This will save lives in next 2-3 months, and a booster can be given later when manufacturing catches up.

      4 replies 0 retweets 43 likes
    3. Cheetos have no singular‏ @BartonMarks 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @yellingatwind @zeynep

      No. Because we want people to be able to leave their homes, which smart vulnerable people aren’t doing. There’s a big difference between 80% and 95% when deciding that.

      4 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    4. Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified)‏ @yellingatwind 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @BartonMarks @zeynep

      Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified) Retweeted Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified)

      The biggest issue in next 3 months is not leaving homes. It is people dying or having last health impacts.https://twitter.com/yellingatwind/status/1337067019506765824?s=20 …

      Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified) added,

      Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified) @yellingatwind
      Geneva Switzerland hospital data. More than half the patients are there for post-COVID rehabilitation rather than active COVID infections. https://twitter.com/Hopitaux_unige/status/1337064537091084290 …
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @yellingatwind @BartonMarks

      Also, having an extra hundred million vaccinated at ~80% may allow you not just to leave your home, but to get your life back much faster than your personal 95% protection. These are real trade-offs.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. Cheetos have no singular‏ @BartonMarks 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @yellingatwind

      Maybe. The composition of early vaccinated are probably mostly shutting in. It’s the other groups.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified)‏ @yellingatwind 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @BartonMarks @zeynep

      The vulnerable "shut-in" groups may not be leaving their homes, but people who take care of them are coming to their homes and bringing the virus.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Cheetos have no singular‏ @BartonMarks 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @yellingatwind @zeynep

      And you know that the 80% is identical in every way except 25% effective? You know how this affects initial and future compliance? You know how many people skip the flu vaccine because it is less protective than regular vaccines?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified)‏ @yellingatwind 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @BartonMarks @zeynep

      All valid points for a discussion. But they aren't reasons not to have the discussion.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Cheetos have no singular‏ @BartonMarks 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @yellingatwind @zeynep

      Cheetos have no singular Retweeted F. Perry Wilson, MD MSCE

      This is why we wait for experts to weigh in rather than discussing as laypersons on twitter, which can bad aggregate effects, like people ditching the second dose.https://mobile.twitter.com/fperrywilson/status/1337130441053265920 …

      Cheetos have no singular added,

      F. Perry Wilson, MD MSCE @fperrywilson
      I can't recommend a policy of just giving everyone one dose based on this data. There may be other data I am not aware of, though. This absolutely calls for a randomized trial of 1 versus 2 doses though as @thehowie has suggested. 9/
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @BartonMarks @yellingatwind

      Nah, that's statistical power; super easy to solve the moment actual vaccinations start.

      1:17 PM - 10 Dec 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. Cheetos have no singular‏ @BartonMarks 10 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @yellingatwind

          Which is different than suggesting the initial policy be only giving one dose, which you seemed to suggest. A potential catastrophic consequence is the thin data painted a deceptive picture, the vaccine isn't that effective in one dose, and people get skeptical and skip it.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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