Pfizer reports "52.4% efficacy" for single dose but that includes the first seven days, before things kick in, when most new infections happened. At 10-12 days, the chart (eyeballing, no underlying data yet) looks ~80-85% efficacy. Unpleasant trade-off but reality is unpleasant.
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Replying to @zeynep
80% for 2x as many people is still a whole lot better than 95% under the current plan. This will save lives in next 2-3 months, and a booster can be given later when manufacturing catches up.
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Replying to @yellingatwind @zeynep
No. Because we want people to be able to leave their homes, which smart vulnerable people aren’t doing. There’s a big difference between 80% and 95% when deciding that.
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Replying to @BartonMarks @zeynep
Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified) Retweeted Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified)
The biggest issue in next 3 months is not leaving homes. It is people dying or having last health impacts.https://twitter.com/yellingatwind/status/1337067019506765824?s=20 …
Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified) added,
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Replying to @yellingatwind @BartonMarks
Also, having an extra hundred million vaccinated at ~80% may allow you not just to leave your home, but to get your life back much faster than your personal 95% protection. These are real trade-offs.
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Replying to @zeynep @yellingatwind
Maybe. The composition of early vaccinated are probably mostly shutting in. It’s the other groups.
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Replying to @BartonMarks @zeynep
The vulnerable "shut-in" groups may not be leaving their homes, but people who take care of them are coming to their homes and bringing the virus.
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Replying to @yellingatwind @zeynep
And you know that the 80% is identical in every way except 25% effective? You know how this affects initial and future compliance? You know how many people skip the flu vaccine because it is less protective than regular vaccines?
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Replying to @BartonMarks @zeynep
All valid points for a discussion. But they aren't reasons not to have the discussion.
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Replying to @yellingatwind @zeynep
Cheetos have no singular Retweeted F. Perry Wilson, MD MSCE
This is why we wait for experts to weigh in rather than discussing as laypersons on twitter, which can bad aggregate effects, like people ditching the second dose.https://mobile.twitter.com/fperrywilson/status/1337130441053265920 …
Cheetos have no singular added,
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Nah, that's statistical power; super easy to solve the moment actual vaccinations start.
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Replying to @zeynep @yellingatwind
Which is different than suggesting the initial policy be only giving one dose, which you seemed to suggest. A potential catastrophic consequence is the thin data painted a deceptive picture, the vaccine isn't that effective in one dose, and people get skeptical and skip it.
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