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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020

      The BioNTech/Pfizer data is out—NEJM & FDA report. I understand this wasn't in the design & the long-term protection from single dose is open question. But given this sharp drop after 14 days after one dose, can someone explain why single dose isn't very very high on the agenda?pic.twitter.com/sxqwACGulz

      78 replies 334 retweets 1,479 likes
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    2. Aaron Richterman, MD‏ @AaronRichterman 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      Second dose important for overall durable immunity in animal models. This study tells very little about even medium term efficacy of a single dose, unfortunately

      4 replies 3 retweets 42 likes
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @AaronRichterman

      Right, but the alternative is zero vaccination for hundreds of millions—maybe billion—people next year. Why not start with single dose at least for a big enough group so that we know more as soon as possible? The trade-off is very real here.

      2 replies 1 retweet 45 likes
    4. Babak Javid‏ @javid_lab 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @AaronRichterman

      The reason *might* be that if we (say) give 100M single dose, and it is only 50% effective over 6 months, whereas 50M given 2 doses is 90% effective, you protect similar numbers of people. BUT if you prioritise 2 doses to most vulnerable, you may be saving far more lives.

      2 replies 1 retweet 13 likes
    5. SeaTwin‏ @sea_twin 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @javid_lab @zeynep @AaronRichterman

      This seems overly simplistic. Does this not greatly depend on the definition of “effective”, and the fraction of those who get infected after a single dose who require hospitalization/ICU?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Babak Javid‏ @javid_lab 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @sea_twin @zeynep @AaronRichterman

      yes...and we just don't have enough data. So it becomes bird in the hand syndrome. It's worth asking the question, and we'll get a pragmatic answer from drop-outs. Not sure if we'll find out by design.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @javid_lab @sea_twin @AaronRichterman

      There's about ~1250 dropouts from second dose of the vaccine arm (and a similar number from the placebo arm). Both are non-random, but interesting that they are matched in number so maybe not completely non-random. Seems worth looking to see if there's any signal there.

      1:02 PM - 10 Dec 2020
      • 2 Likes
      • Wes Pegden Babak Javid
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Babak Javid‏ @javid_lab 10 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @sea_twin @AaronRichterman

          yes, but number of cases (esp. severe) pretty small...this is what plagued the AZ LD/SD subgroup too.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020
          Replying to @javid_lab @sea_twin @AaronRichterman

          Indeed. But they could give us a "don't bother" signal, as the information they carry is asymmetric. Lack of cases isn't conclusive, but if the dropouts had a significant number of cases—approaching or matching non-vaccinated rates—then we have a strong signal.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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