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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020

      The BioNTech/Pfizer data is out—NEJM & FDA report. I understand this wasn't in the design & the long-term protection from single dose is open question. But given this sharp drop after 14 days after one dose, can someone explain why single dose isn't very very high on the agenda?pic.twitter.com/sxqwACGulz

      78 replies 334 retweets 1,479 likes
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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020

      Yes, ideally there would have been a single-dose study as well. But here we are, and with a shortage that will mean many more people will die and everything else will be delayed. Personally, looking at that data, I'd quickly take one dose to give someone else a chance at one.

      17 replies 31 retweets 382 likes
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    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted

      Maybe. There are 1256 people who did not receive the second dose in the trial. Yes, small group but what happened to them? I get it, ideally, we have a single dose study. Not so ideally, we have this data and a severe shortage. Seems worth a discussion. https://twitter.com/Valentine721/status/1337048321026875394 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      This Tweet is unavailable.
      7 replies 13 retweets 251 likes
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    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020

      Pfizer reports "52.4% efficacy" for single dose but that includes the first seven days, before things kick in, when most new infections happened. At 10-12 days, the chart (eyeballing, no underlying data yet) looks ~80-85% efficacy. Unpleasant trade-off but reality is unpleasant.

      21 replies 48 retweets 430 likes
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    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020

      I'm hoping for immunology/virology people to tell us the potential trade-offs here. We know one side: due to shortages, hundreds of millions of people will not get vaccinated anytime soon. What does the calculation on the other side look like?

      16 replies 17 retweets 260 likes
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    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020

      At a minimum minimum, there should be an immediate single-dose trial launched, like yesterday. We sadly have a raging epidemic and will get results quickly but I think not giving this real thought now—and an explanation to the public—would be a grave mistake, given the stakes.

      12 replies 32 retweets 343 likes
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    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Stefan Baral

      Yeah, but given the stakes, "we don't know for sure so we won't vaccinate hundreds of millions" is not an acceptable answer. Shortage is a terrible trade-off, too. Why didn't they/we immediately launch a single dose trial after prelim data? They knew.https://twitter.com/sdbaral/status/1337053741015502850 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Stefan BaralVerified account @sdbaral
      Replying to @zeynep
      Dose de-escalation/non-inferiority trials tend to be very difficult to get pharma to agree to. But indeed, it is an open question of the non-inferiority of 6 weeks after one dose vs 2 weeks after the 2nd dose. Imagine Pfizer/moderna fights back on behalf of their shareholders.
      14 replies 24 retweets 219 likes
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    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020

      Look, folks, like all things pandemic, this is a trade-off. The immunology people should weigh in and explain to us about one side of the trade-off. The other side is a societal/ethical decision because we're bouncing potentially less efficacious against *not at all vaccinated*.

      14 replies 22 retweets 272 likes
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    9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020

      This is immediately consequential. US plans to HOLD BACK for many millions now vaccination to preserve for second dose later. @ScottGottliebMD—Pfizer board member—disagrees: "We should get as many shots in our arms as possible right now." https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/12/07/covid-vaccine-pfizer-board-member-disagrees-us-distribution-plan/3860363001/ …pic.twitter.com/6CGpcLlsSb

      26 replies 145 retweets 548 likes
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    10. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Michael Mina

      Let me ask this. We know older people need the booster more (from published data). But why we wouldn't launch a single-dose effort (randomized/blinded within) for <65 which can answer the questions about durability while immunizing millions more?https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1337078184597217281 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Michael MinaVerified account @michaelmina_lab
      Agree! One dose = 2x people vaccinated The math is plain & simple Approach is broken. We do not do what makes sense: w/ rapid tests or making single dose vacc a priority when they work (both obvious benefits). We fail to do what's smart We choose perfect over most effective. https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1337047714341785605 …
      Show this thread
      9 replies 21 retweets 194 likes
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      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020

      I wrote up the case for launching immediate trials to test a single-dose regime. Calling for volunteers among < 65 health-care workers for single dose and later booster seems like the minimal prudent response to this chart. We could know fairly quickly.https://zeynep.substack.com/p/vaccines-and-decision-making-with …

      12:01 PM - 10 Dec 2020
      • 49 Retweets
      • 162 Likes
      • Aryeh Brusowankin whats happening (((Vanity Unfair))) Crimsonkage Daniela Ha 🌈🇩🇪🇪🇺🇯🇵🇵🇷 Michael Chesnut Vinay Gorur Dr. Lorna Quandt, PhD 🧠👌🏼💭 integral sound
      9 replies 49 retweets 162 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Alex Merz‏ @Merz 10 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Worth noting that no mRNA vaccine has ever been widely deployed for humans before. There was not a strong a priori reason to think that these vaccines would be even close to this efficacious. It was not clear that they would be protective at all.

          1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
        3. Alex Merz‏ @Merz 10 Dec 2020
          Replying to @Merz @zeynep

          Consequently, when designing the trials, it would have arguably been foolish to waste statistical power on inoculation regimes likely to show borderline protective effect, given what was known at the time.

          1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Dan Ly‏ @meddly 10 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          .@ashdgandhi

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Joppe Nieuwenhuis‏ @jopkop 10 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          I really like the idea, but it won't be fast. The most important part of that trial is the duration of the protection with a single shot, and especially that answer would take a while...

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Gabriele Hayden‏ @reprofan 10 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          My understanding is that 50% of people don’t get second dose of many vaccines (cf family member in public health). So at the very least they should release enough doses to account for expected melt with 2nd dose. Also people could get 2nd dose in 6-8mo when more supply.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Saara Jafary‏ @shokufeyesib 10 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          @threadreaderapp unroll

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        1. Paul Dodd‏ @PaulDod71219642 11 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Great proposal. The big question is does a single dose also damp down infectivity? A single dose regime for healthy younger adults coming into contact with #COVID patients makes perfect sense in either case at this time.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Nick‏ @nickfoosball 11 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          You mentioned there were ~1k people who only got one shot, assume we don't have enough data on them? Would be good to know

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. M W TRAFFENSTEDT‏ @traffenstedt 11 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Possibly at 95% one can almost eliminate the disease while that isn’t going to happen at 82%. Just speculation. Think of it more as 5% vs 18%. More than 3 times as effective.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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