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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 10 Dec 2020

      Nate Silver Retweeted zeynep tufekci

      Yeah, it's pretty misleading when Pfizer cites only 52% efficacy from a single dose. Have seen several experts cite 80-85% ish efficacy instead from looking at this data.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1337050743552036867 …

      Nate Silver added,

      zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynep
      Pfizer reports "52.4% efficacy" for single dose but that includes the first seven days, before things kick in, when most new infections happened. At 10-12 days, the chart (eyeballing, no underlying data yet) looks ~80-85% efficacy. Unpleasant trade-off but reality is unpleasant.
      Show this thread
      38 replies 42 retweets 599 likes
    2. Stephen Goldstein‏ @stgoldst 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @NateSilver538

      The bigger issue is that it's quite likely a single-dose regime will produce much less durable immunity. Possibly as little as a couple of months, so implementing this without a trial is very risky. @VirusesImmunity, a leading immunologist, has commented specifically on this.

      3 replies 0 retweets 27 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @stgoldst @NateSilver538 @VirusesImmunity

      Right, but we're balancing much "less durable immunity" against many many millions fewer *unvaccinated* people in US. What's the argument against immediate single-dose launch trial (among voluntary HCW without comorbidities maybe?). Nobody says this is ideal.

      8:29 AM - 10 Dec 2020
      • 7 Likes
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      3 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
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        2. Stephen Goldstein‏ @stgoldst 10 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @NateSilver538 @VirusesImmunity

          I would support doing a trial. I would not support generally implementing an untested vaccine regime. We don't know if doing a delayed boost is as effective, so you might end up needing for example 3 doses.

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
        3. Kevin Rusch‏ @KevinR70 10 Dec 2020
          Replying to @stgoldst @zeynep and

          In a theoretical example, I would too. But while the disease is raging, the harm of waiting, or of saving a 2nd dose for each patient, is much greater than it would be to immunize 2x as many people.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Armchair epidemiologist (self-certified)‏ @yellingatwind 10 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @stgoldst and

          What is stopping a health-care system from deciding on a one dose regimen for now (booster when available) if patients sign waiver? Decision-making under uncertainty is hard but critical in situation like we have now.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Stephen Goldstein‏ @stgoldst 10 Dec 2020
          Replying to @yellingatwind @zeynep and

          Does "booster when available" work as well? Or will people have to start over from scratch? That could increase by 1/3 the needed numbers of doses.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. Ernesto Rodríguez‏ @Ernestoalexan 10 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @stgoldst and

          There's also the chance that you might help the virus develop resistance and destroy basically all the work scientist did to get a vaccine faster. Let's start a singel dose trial and be patient.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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