Yes, ideally there would have been a single-dose study as well. But here we are, and with a shortage that will mean many more people will die and everything else will be delayed. Personally, looking at that data, I'd quickly take one dose to give someone else a chance at one.
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted
Maybe. There are 1256 people who did not receive the second dose in the trial. Yes, small group but what happened to them? I get it, ideally, we have a single dose study. Not so ideally, we have this data and a severe shortage. Seems worth a discussion. https://twitter.com/Valentine721/status/1337048321026875394 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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Pfizer reports "52.4% efficacy" for single dose but that includes the first seven days, before things kick in, when most new infections happened. At 10-12 days, the chart (eyeballing, no underlying data yet) looks ~80-85% efficacy. Unpleasant trade-off but reality is unpleasant.
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I'm hoping for immunology/virology people to tell us the potential trade-offs here. We know one side: due to shortages, hundreds of millions of people will not get vaccinated anytime soon. What does the calculation on the other side look like?
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At a minimum minimum, there should be an immediate single-dose trial launched, like yesterday. We sadly have a raging epidemic and will get results quickly but I think not giving this real thought now—and an explanation to the public—would be a grave mistake, given the stakes.
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Replying to @zeynep
Dose de-escalation/non-inferiority trials tend to be very difficult to get pharma to agree to. But indeed, it is an open question of the non-inferiority of 6 weeks after one dose vs 2 weeks after the 2nd dose. Imagine Pfizer/moderna fights back on behalf of their shareholders.
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Could they? Once the vaccine is out there this is something a major hospital chain could run as a study independently of Pfizer/Moderna. The protocol is “easy”, the recruitment of volunteers is trivial,
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I think question is whether Pfizer/Moderna needs to approve. The rules may be different as well as Moderna took development costs so IP rules may be different. Either way, we will learn in Phase IV since some folks wont come back for second shot--so real world data will tell.
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So many people volunteered for the vaccine trial!
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I absolutely would. I see the case for accepting only people under 55, no major comorbidities etc. till we know more.
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