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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020

      The BioNTech/Pfizer data is out—NEJM & FDA report. I understand this wasn't in the design & the long-term protection from single dose is open question. But given this sharp drop after 14 days after one dose, can someone explain why single dose isn't very very high on the agenda?pic.twitter.com/sxqwACGulz

      78 replies 334 retweets 1,479 likes
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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020

      Yes, ideally there would have been a single-dose study as well. But here we are, and with a shortage that will mean many more people will die and everything else will be delayed. Personally, looking at that data, I'd quickly take one dose to give someone else a chance at one.

      17 replies 31 retweets 382 likes
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    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted

      Maybe. There are 1256 people who did not receive the second dose in the trial. Yes, small group but what happened to them? I get it, ideally, we have a single dose study. Not so ideally, we have this data and a severe shortage. Seems worth a discussion. https://twitter.com/Valentine721/status/1337048321026875394 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      This Tweet is unavailable.
      7 replies 13 retweets 251 likes
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    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020

      Pfizer reports "52.4% efficacy" for single dose but that includes the first seven days, before things kick in, when most new infections happened. At 10-12 days, the chart (eyeballing, no underlying data yet) looks ~80-85% efficacy. Unpleasant trade-off but reality is unpleasant.

      21 replies 48 retweets 430 likes
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    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020

      I'm hoping for immunology/virology people to tell us the potential trade-offs here. We know one side: due to shortages, hundreds of millions of people will not get vaccinated anytime soon. What does the calculation on the other side look like?

      16 replies 17 retweets 260 likes
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    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020

      At a minimum minimum, there should be an immediate single-dose trial launched, like yesterday. We sadly have a raging epidemic and will get results quickly but I think not giving this real thought now—and an explanation to the public—would be a grave mistake, given the stakes.

      12 replies 32 retweets 343 likes
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    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Stefan Baral

      Yeah, but given the stakes, "we don't know for sure so we won't vaccinate hundreds of millions" is not an acceptable answer. Shortage is a terrible trade-off, too. Why didn't they/we immediately launch a single dose trial after prelim data? They knew.https://twitter.com/sdbaral/status/1337053741015502850 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Stefan BaralVerified account @sdbaral
      Replying to @zeynep
      Dose de-escalation/non-inferiority trials tend to be very difficult to get pharma to agree to. But indeed, it is an open question of the non-inferiority of 6 weeks after one dose vs 2 weeks after the 2nd dose. Imagine Pfizer/moderna fights back on behalf of their shareholders.
      14 replies 24 retweets 219 likes
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      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020

      Look, folks, like all things pandemic, this is a trade-off. The immunology people should weigh in and explain to us about one side of the trade-off. The other side is a societal/ethical decision because we're bouncing potentially less efficacious against *not at all vaccinated*.

      7:37 AM - 10 Dec 2020
      • 22 Retweets
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      • Paula Rogness Aryeh Brusowankin whats happening lindan johnson - #BLUE in GILEAD 🌊🌊🌊 Daniela Ha 🌈🇩🇪🇪🇺🇯🇵🇵🇷 Brian Chu Michael Chesnut Mona van der Smitte #stayathome 😷 💉 #staysafe OZ-00MS2B Tallgeese
      14 replies 22 retweets 272 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020

          This is immediately consequential. US plans to HOLD BACK for many millions now vaccination to preserve for second dose later. @ScottGottliebMD—Pfizer board member—disagrees: "We should get as many shots in our arms as possible right now." https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/12/07/covid-vaccine-pfizer-board-member-disagrees-us-distribution-plan/3860363001/ …pic.twitter.com/6CGpcLlsSb

          26 replies 145 retweets 548 likes
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        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Michael Mina

          Let me ask this. We know older people need the booster more (from published data). But why we wouldn't launch a single-dose effort (randomized/blinded within) for <65 which can answer the questions about durability while immunizing millions more?https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1337078184597217281 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Michael MinaVerified account @michaelmina_lab
          Agree! One dose = 2x people vaccinated The math is plain & simple Approach is broken. We do not do what makes sense: w/ rapid tests or making single dose vacc a priority when they work (both obvious benefits). We fail to do what's smart We choose perfect over most effective. https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1337047714341785605 …
          Show this thread
          9 replies 21 retweets 194 likes
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        4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020

          I wrote up the case for launching immediate trials to test a single-dose regime. Calling for volunteers among < 65 health-care workers for single dose and later booster seems like the minimal prudent response to this chart. We could know fairly quickly.https://zeynep.substack.com/p/vaccines-and-decision-making-with …

          9 replies 49 retweets 162 likes
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        5. End of conversation
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        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020
          Replying to @nicholas_bagley

          Yeah. It's kind of maddening to treat these questions as if there is one ideal, scientific answer, rather than messy trade-offs and incomplete data on all sides.

          3 replies 0 retweets 16 likes
        3. Show replies
        1. Ben Dube  🚲 🧦 🚰  🚲‏ @benjamintdube 10 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          It would also be *VERY* useful to understand the relative efficiency of a 2nd dose given 3 months later rather than 3 weeks! If that works remotely as well, running through the population 1 dose at a time seems like a no brainer!

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. Dave  🌵 🚴‍♀️ 🎸‏ @HikerDave57 10 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          I saw @ScottGottliebMD (pfizer board member) or maybe one of the other Sunday Morning talking heads advance a similar idea; that with production ramping up it makes sense to take the risk that people not get the second dose in order to vaccinate more earlier.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Wandering Scientist‏ @wandsci 10 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Not an immunologist so I too will wait for experts to form my final opinion. But am in pharma/biotech - therapeutics not vaccines. Dosing regimes based on available data, e.g. animal studies. Suspect in this case also past experience w/similar vaccines.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Wandering Scientist‏ @wandsci 10 Dec 2020
          Replying to @wandsci @zeynep

          It probably tells us something that both mRNA vax teams came up with 2 dose regimen. Suspect 2and dose is for longevity of response. But that is only an educated guess.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. Mark Rabkin‏Verified account @mrabkin 10 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Mark Rabkin Retweeted Prof. Akiko Iwasaki

          I found this thread pretty informative. To me it complexifies the tradeoff space - if short term immunity fades after a couple months, leaving people vulnerable, it may be less efficient long run. But hard calculus.https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/1336323016737755142 …

          Mark Rabkin added,

          Prof. Akiko IwasakiVerified account @VirusesImmunity
          The estimated vaccine efficacy after the 1st (82%), between 1st and 2nd (52.4%) and after the second dose (95%) are all impressive! However, high affinity Ab and long term immunity likely require the 2nd dose and we should all adhere to the recommended regimen. (2/n) pic.twitter.com/hSmSURkVTD
          Show this thread
          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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