Maybe. There are 1256 people who did not receive the second dose in the trial. Yes, small group but what happened to them? I get it, ideally, we have a single dose study. Not so ideally, we have this data and a severe shortage. Seems worth a discussion. https://twitter.com/Valentine721/status/1337048321026875394 …
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Pfizer reports "52.4% efficacy" for single dose but that includes the first seven days, before things kick in, when most new infections happened. At 10-12 days, the chart (eyeballing, no underlying data yet) looks ~80-85% efficacy. Unpleasant trade-off but reality is unpleasant.
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I'm hoping for immunology/virology people to tell us the potential trade-offs here. We know one side: due to shortages, hundreds of millions of people will not get vaccinated anytime soon. What does the calculation on the other side look like?
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At a minimum minimum, there should be an immediate single-dose trial launched, like yesterday. We sadly have a raging epidemic and will get results quickly but I think not giving this real thought now—and an explanation to the public—would be a grave mistake, given the stakes.
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Replying to @gshotwell
So what? Fishing expeditions to get published aren't good but not everything that's retrospective is disqualifying.
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Replying to @gshotwell
Yeah, though the other side of the trade-off is hundreds of millions don't get vaccinated at all.
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Put the other side, too. Pfizer is thinking of a billion doses next year; so at double dose, that's a billion who cannot get vaccinated.
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Replying to @gshotwell @zeynep
Given the prevalence of COVID right now, though, seems like you could complete a single dose trial in short order
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End of conversation
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