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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020

      The BioNTech/Pfizer data is out—NEJM & FDA report. I understand this wasn't in the design & the long-term protection from single dose is open question. But given this sharp drop after 14 days after one dose, can someone explain why single dose isn't very very high on the agenda?pic.twitter.com/sxqwACGulz

      78 replies 334 retweets 1,479 likes
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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020

      Yes, ideally there would have been a single-dose study as well. But here we are, and with a shortage that will mean many more people will die and everything else will be delayed. Personally, looking at that data, I'd quickly take one dose to give someone else a chance at one.

      17 replies 31 retweets 382 likes
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    3. Whitney R. Robinson‏ @WhitneyEpi 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      The curve is misleading. The prelim data on the period between Dose 1 and Dose 2 indicates only 50% effectiveness vs 90% plus for one dose. This is a case where a beautiful figure is dangerous. The mind assumes that the curve would have stayed just as flat it people only got...

      2 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
    4. Whitney R. Robinson‏ @WhitneyEpi 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @WhitneyEpi @zeynep

      1 dose, but that’s not true. Yes, there was a sharp turn down after one dose (one dose DOES offer some short term protection - although unclear how long it would last vs 2 doses)...

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. Whitney R. Robinson‏ @WhitneyEpi 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @WhitneyEpi @zeynep

      But the extent of the downturn in the effect is hard to guage visually based on the very short time frame between Dose 1 and Dose 2. Dose 2 is doing a lot of the work of keeping curves so separated but impossible to disentangle. I wrote a short thread; will try to link later

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @WhitneyEpi

      The prelim data includes the first seven days though. Yes I agree, the eyeballing is hard, that's why I'm asking. Please do write it up! I get the fear that without dose two the curve goes right back up, but then again, with dose two, we can't vaccinate 50 million people?

      7:07 AM - 10 Dec 2020
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. Whitney R. Robinson‏ @WhitneyEpi 10 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Whitney R. Robinson Retweeted Whitney R. Robinson

          Good convo. I’ll come back to read later. Here’s info broken down by time around doses. I *do* think it’s worth figuring out the population effects of partial dosing bc of people who don’t come back for Dose 2. How much to invest in pursuing them vs giving away their dose 2?https://twitter.com/WhitneyEpi/status/1336382099834597377 …

          Whitney R. Robinson added,

          Whitney R. Robinson @WhitneyEpi
          More info on exact timings when vaccine effects seem to kick in. This whole thread good. Lots of charts with detailed info on Pfizer vaccine! https://twitter.com/fperrywilson/status/1336298330578673664 …
          Show this thread
          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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        1. Acroman39‏ @croman39 10 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @WhitneyEpi

          Also what do immunologists believe is result of ~two months between doses? The goal was minimum of 50% effectiveness. Surely the one dose effectiveness would not erode that quickly at ~60 days? How many deaths could be prevented vs. cost of one dose loss of effectiveness?

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