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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 3 Dec 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      The important question though isn't whether this is possible but how frequent it is. It doesn't seem like this study can answer that. There are countries that took names for tracing purposes from restaurants, so there's no reason a good study with denominators couldn't be done?

      16 replies 7 retweets 134 likes
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 3 Dec 2020
      Replying to @WesPegden

      You need proper large N studies for that, meanwhile we still cannot get people to accept the transmission paths highlighted by these studies, i.e. indoor dining is not a good idea.

      6 replies 8 retweets 317 likes
    3. Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 3 Dec 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      Obviously I agree this can make the case that these transmission paths can happen. But using the existence of any reports as the basis for policy decisions would ban outdoor dining as well, along with schools, etc.

      3 replies 1 retweet 33 likes
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 3 Dec 2020
      Replying to @WesPegden

      I'm aware of very few documented outdoor transmission events—and we understand mechanisms here—plus we have many studies from schools showing age differences. We do have many restaurant/bar/nightclub transmission events. Proportions are indeed unknown, but we do have an idea.

      2 replies 3 retweets 35 likes
    5. Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 3 Dec 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      I don't mean to suggest that we don't have reason to think indoor dining is higher risk; the increased risk of indoor settings seems to be one of the few things that is relatively clear. For me individual reports like this are a small part of the picture though. 1/

      2 replies 1 retweet 12 likes
    6. Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 3 Dec 2020
      Replying to @WesPegden @zeynep

      In particular the risk of cross-table transmission does seem unclear currently, rather than transmission between people at the same table, or staff in close contact with customers. Highest risk environment not within-table is likely the kitchen, whether for takeout or dine-in./2

      1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 3 Dec 2020
      Replying to @WesPegden

      Cross-table contamination seems to depend on ventilation and air flow in the room, hence a bit of a crap shoot. (Though ventilation can be measured with CO2 devices). I would guess that kitchen=masked workers<unmasked diners, especially if masks are better grade/fit.

      1 reply 3 retweets 14 likes
    8. Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 3 Dec 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      I suspect that a loud kitchen with people talking to each other is likelier to be much worse than the risk of cross-table transmission regardless of who is wearing cloth masks. This is a case where better evidence on the quantitative effectiveness of masks would matter though.

      1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
    9. Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 3 Dec 2020
      Replying to @WesPegden @zeynep

      Sorry, I somehow missed your reference to "better grade" masks. I agree that better masks for people in these environments should be a high priority. The messaging on this is terrible right now! I'm still not sure we should think a quick service cook is "safe" in a mask.

      1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
    10. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 3 Dec 2020
      Replying to @WesPegden

      Yeah, close quarter work is probably not great, but I've been chatting with restaurant owners who tell me that a professional kitchen has frequent air exchanges. I still did give him a bunch of KN95s for the kitchen/cooking staff based on similar logic to yours.

      2 replies 3 retweets 15 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 3 Dec 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @WesPegden

      I also need to go back and find if there have been better meat-packing explanations. Clearly, it's telling us something about temperature and humidity—it's not just bad working conditions in the US, such plants have huge outbreaks elsewhere, too.

      6:15 PM - 3 Dec 2020
      • 4 Retweets
      • 18 Likes
      • MD Lydia CAPS LOCKED & LOADED🌹 Alan Samantha Chalmers Information Junkie 👨‍💻 Aviva Gabriel Stuart Karaffa Emily Rugel
      4 replies 4 retweets 18 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 3 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          I wonder if one could do a RCT for better masks for some meatpacking plants. [Assuming they aren't already using them.]

          1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 3 Dec 2020
          Replying to @WesPegden

          The number of missed RCT opportunities here is terrible. We're all about natural experiments and regression discontinuity, unfortunately.

          1 reply 1 retweet 16 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Unintended Consequence‏ @UnintendedCons5 3 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @WesPegden

          Having worked in one way back when. Lots of new immigrant workers sharing small homes, rides, crowded lockers... The pay is good, but the lifestyle is harsh. Its not just the workplace that's a problem in meatpacking spread.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Stuart Karaffa‏ @stuartkaraffa 4 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @WesPegden

          I found this study helpful in describing a COVID outbreak in a German meatpacking plant over the summer. You're right about temperature and humidity. Lack of adequate airflow + strenuous work also seemed to contribute. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3654517 …

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. Show replies
        1. Information Junkie  👨‍💻‏ @JustTheFacts37 4 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @WesPegden

          Information Junkie  👨‍💻 Retweeted

          For meat packing plants, have you seen this study? Would appear the refrigerated environment, along with the close contact work, is what helped facilitate high transmission rates https://twitter.com/dylanhmorris/status/1317456608599965696?s=21 …

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