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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 3 Dec 2020

      A study from Korea showing why indoor dining is unsafe and why airborne transmission matters. Case B infected case A from 6.5m (~21 feet!) away in *just five minutes*, and case C from 4.8m (15 feet!). Footage shows no interaction—and only those in line of air flow got infected.pic.twitter.com/Yw3Gb8INWP

      261 replies 11,358 retweets 22,947 likes
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    2. Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 3 Dec 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      The important question though isn't whether this is possible but how frequent it is. It doesn't seem like this study can answer that. There are countries that took names for tracing purposes from restaurants, so there's no reason a good study with denominators couldn't be done?

      16 replies 7 retweets 134 likes
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 3 Dec 2020
      Replying to @WesPegden

      You need proper large N studies for that, meanwhile we still cannot get people to accept the transmission paths highlighted by these studies, i.e. indoor dining is not a good idea.

      6 replies 8 retweets 317 likes
    4. Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 3 Dec 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      Obviously I agree this can make the case that these transmission paths can happen. But using the existence of any reports as the basis for policy decisions would ban outdoor dining as well, along with schools, etc.

      3 replies 1 retweet 33 likes
    5. Carlo Dallapiccola‏ @CarloDallapicc1 3 Dec 2020
      Replying to @WesPegden @zeynep

      I agree with Wes. Be very careful when taking a single event and generalizing it. The article itself is fairly careful not to make stronger statements than warranted, using principles all scientists follow. "Evidence of..." "...is possible." In the event that the 1/2

      3 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
    6. Kucco Song‏ @KuccoSong 3 Dec 2020
      Replying to @CarloDallapicc1 @WesPegden @zeynep

      You gotta realize one case is already very significant with so few cases in East Asia. Chinese researchers also. published serval papers on how air flow results in long range transmission in restaurants & bus settings This is basically mask thing all over again

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Carlo Dallapiccola‏ @CarloDallapicc1 3 Dec 2020
      Replying to @KuccoSong @WesPegden @zeynep

      I agree on the part about few cases in S. Korea. But, still, how can you reliably say that because this particular chain of transmissions happened this way, in this setting, it is more commonplace than other chains of transmission in other settings? You cannot. This is 1/2

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Carlo Dallapiccola‏ @CarloDallapicc1 3 Dec 2020
      Replying to @CarloDallapicc1 @KuccoSong and

      the foundation of statistical analysis to infer probability of different hypotheses. The bus of monks and the restaurant in China are two other well-documented cases. The statistics on which we are trying to base broad conclusions is very small, unfortunately. 2/3

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Carlo Dallapiccola‏ @CarloDallapicc1 3 Dec 2020
      Replying to @CarloDallapicc1 @KuccoSong and

      There are too many things being inferred, without a legitimate basis. Maybe you think I am being overly rigorous in my reasoning - but this is how scientists reason and reach conclusions.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    10. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 3 Dec 2020
      Replying to @CarloDallapicc1 @KuccoSong @WesPegden

      Or maybe you are not following the evidence, if you only knw three cases. There's a database with 1600+ mass transmission events (more than a few people infected) and there are only maybe two pure outdoor cases. There have been thousands and thousands of reports.

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 3 Dec 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @CarloDallapicc1 and

      I'm not a frequentist, but I don't think we need to settle that dispute to conclude that after eleven months and thousands and thousands of of cases reported from all over the world, we can couple those with lab studies and make some inferences about what's happening.

      5:39 PM - 3 Dec 2020
      • 1 Like
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      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 3 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @CarloDallapicc1 and

          (I should add that I would also like systematic studies for a better denominator but I feel pretty confident that we can say that unmasked indoor dining/talking activities represent a distinct class of high risk, like choirs, and should be avoided).

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Carlo Dallapiccola‏ @CarloDallapicc1 3 Dec 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @KuccoSong @WesPegden

          Yes. There is a lot of data and I see a lot of contradictions when it comes to how transmissions are happening, how we know they are happening as we suspect, etc. A restaurant with a CCTV means that, unlike most cases, a specific transmission chain can be interrogated.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Zac Bissonnette‏ @ZacBissonnette 3 Dec 2020
          Replying to @CarloDallapicc1 @zeynep and

          FWIW: Andrew Cuomo said today that their contact tracing has found restaurants and gyms are not major sources of transmission in this wave. I don’t particularly believe him because I don’t think NY’s contact tracing has been effective. It comes down to how much evidence one needs

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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