I would respectfully disagree @zeynep that the evidence on the routes/mechanisms of transmission and pathogensis are well-characterized or resolved. I would make the same argument for the scientific uncertainty surrounding risk response to communication about it as well.
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Replying to @DrJaimeAnne @samhorwich and
Is there dispute that there is some level of transmission longer than one meters, especially in poorly- ventilated indoors? Even CDC and WHO say this now, I hardly see a lot of controversy over this anymore to be honest. What proportion etc. are good questions but unclear.
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Replying to @zeynep @samhorwich and
@zeynep What is most clear from an evidenced perspective is that there are likely multiple routes of transmission (common in resp. viruses). Again, impact of those routes on epi dynamics and pathogenesis is *unclear* and all caution is therefore warranted around those findings.2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @DrJaimeAnne @samhorwich and
Caution warranted how? There are multiple routes (no dispute) and these include instances beyond one meter (have seen no dispute). Caution in making statement on exact proportion of transmission? Sure. But that's not public's concern. They need guidance. Practically means what?
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Replying to @zeynep @samhorwich and
@zeynep I’d say there’s no consensus on the < one meter argument, and again, magnitude of that route is an unknown. I’d exercise caution on making broad generalizations of certainty on what the public is seeing, processing, and changing based on these discussions, though.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @DrJaimeAnne @samhorwich and
So we disagree. I don't really encounter many experts who claim one meter is enough indoors, and even the CDC and WHO have moved beyond that finally, and I think we have clear evidence on what the public is seeing and doing, and we have the guidelines right in front of us.
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Replying to @zeynep @samhorwich and
@zeynep I think you’ve far overstated my position in your recap. My points aren’t to do with the veracity of recommendations, they’re to do with the amount of assuredness we get comfortable with in a highly evolving evidence landscape.1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @DrJaimeAnne @samhorwich and
For example? What would you avoid?
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Replying to @zeynep @samhorwich and
1) assuming exactly what public risk response and info processing looks like right now 2) comms w/ certainty around rts of transmission—>epi dynamics—>disease severity 3) wildly vacillating btwn eviscerating govt. public health and begging for trust in govt. regulated vax.
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Replying to @DrJaimeAnne @samhorwich and
Okay. I'm going to disagree on 1 and 3. I think we have a lot of evidence. On 3, I believe taking them to task is the best way to improve trust, because whatever we don't push to fix will get weaponized by people whose goal is merely to create mistrust, not fix things.
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In other words, mistrust breeds where there is failure, and circling the wagons doesn't help because fixing failure is the actual path to trust. On 2, I'm with you. I don't think there's any need to claim certainty. Totally possible to communicate nuance and unknown.
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Replying to @zeynep @samhorwich and
@zeynep I hear you. The balance between accountability, trust, and reliance is the world I live in here at Federal Academia.
I think it’s such a critical discussion and as always, happy to hash out with you in longer form for our thoughts.1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes -
Replying to @DrJaimeAnne @samhorwich and
Indeed. It's a problem with many institutions; they need to be defended/fixed, but also the failures recognized. Journalism is another example. Very strong tendency to want to circle the wagons (because of all the terrible attacks!) but also makes it harder to strengthen.
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