Not in this case. They had no idea.
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This is Thai cave rescue stuff, just at the scale of billions! Who knew it would work this well? But the difference is not incentive shaped—something totally agree happens in tech. The mRNA approach wasn’t a vaccine thing. Well, apparently it was but we didn’t know.
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They tried b/c demand.
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So they didn't know what to expect about relative effectiveness. Also, from the article it sounds like the Oxford vaccine could turn out to be similarly effective. But presumably the Oxford team had a good idea of what to expect in terms of costs and storage requirements?
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The mRNA could have been a big flop, or much less efficacious. Shot in the dark. Hence my point: difference wasn't about incentives. There are real issues with the Oxford results at them moment; I think they have to redo some of it before we can say anything about that one.
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