Multiple lines of scientific evidence confirm that masks work. Whether you prefer physics, occupational health data, lab-based studies, behavioral data, or if you’re into epi, science has you covered.https://twitter.com/apoorva_nyc/status/1330287178639962112 …
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Replying to @j_g_allen
The Kansas natural experiment is among the best I've seen. Look at what was happening before the mandate: really adds to plausibility it's not just confounding.
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Replying to @zeynep @j_g_allen
Would you have changed your mind if it came back the other way? There have been numerous correlation analyses, some finding an effect, and some not. This is not a good example of a "natural experiment" because there is no pseudo-randomization. 1/2
1 reply 0 retweets 15 likes -
E.g currently in the U.S., the states with the most cases have fewer mask mandates, but the states with the highest transmission rates (Rt) have the most mandates. It likely doesn't mean much other than the pandemic is affecting different parts of the country at different times.
4 replies 1 retweet 22 likes -
Replying to @WesPegden @j_g_allen
Check the trends in that particular one, before the mandates. That’s why I think it is different than many where it really is impossible to say a lot either way.
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Replying to @zeynep @j_g_allen
But your chart shows this is because they misleadingly cropped the charts in the MMWR to exclude the period where the epidemic dynamics were completely different in these two county sets! A correlation in the reverse time direction makes clear there are strong confounders.pic.twitter.com/cIUznx9G9u
2 replies 1 retweet 12 likes
I actually hadn't looked at the MMWR at all. I knew of the study from before, and the chart you posted is the one that I had seen which suggests it's not just confounding. Johnson county was *rising* before the mandate, suggesting not just a place with better distancing.
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Replying to @zeynep @j_g_allen
To trust the comparison between the two I think we want to believe that for everything else that matters for the epidemic, the two county sets are substantially similar, but this is undercut by the fact that one group had a significant epidemic in the spring and the other didn't.
2 replies 0 retweets 9 likes - Show replies
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