This is piggybacking off a @mattyglesias point but I think it shows the problem is that a lot of COVID behavior which may be rational from an individual's standpoint can nonetheless cause negative externalities for society.
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I'd put "indoor dining" in that category, but wouldn't put "self-isolating for two weeks and then driving to a city to eat an outdoor meal with seven people" in that category. The latter is actually literally harmless.
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Replying to @davidshor @NateSilver538 and
That was not at all what the first version of the column was though. It’s been majorly-edited. The first version was I don’t have a bubble but I had no idea, and the only precaution was kids will be pulled from learning pod for a week.
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Replying to @zeynep @davidshor and
I don’t mind people doing low risk activities as they see fit, of course. Issue was very publicly shrugging off something that is very important for people to understand: bubbles aren’t bubbles unless they’re *actually* bubbles. Few people have intuitive grasp of network theory.
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Replying to @zeynep @davidshor and
Every form of prevention is partial. Masks, distance, outdoor, etc each help. Total isolation, for many, is impossible. Each step slows spread, and matters. We must all do what we are able.
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Hanging out maskless outdoors is very very low risk (arguably riskless) and not communicating that to people has been a giant public health failure.
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Replying to @davidshor @jdunck and
So I started writing open the parks/go outside pieces in early April—if you can remember the environment then—and wrote a bunch of things on all that, defending beaches, defending anything outside. That said, I think there's case for not assuming it's like the summer now.
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Replying to @zeynep @davidshor and
When the conditions change—less sun/drier air plus much larger baseline so more encounters—the risks outdoor also shift. How much? Probably not that much, but we don't yet know. There are a few known outdoor cases in the literature. Reassuring how few but not impossible.
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Replying to @zeynep @davidshor and
Which is to say: I agree, the miscommunication has been terrible. I think talking at close distance is still some risk even outdoors.
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Replying to @zeynep @davidshor and
Certainly there are documented cases of spread from close talking outdoors (I remember an early one from Korea for example)
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There's a jogging partner case from Italy, too. There's a temple incident in Hubei where some of the transmissions were outdoors (close contact for lengthy period). It was reassuringly rare, so good. There will be some shift now, but how much? We'll find out.
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I have resisted hiking or running with friends outside my bubble because the heavier breathing seemed risky. Glad to know I wasn’t being foolish there! Seems like safest way to socialize is at a distance (10+ ft) outside.
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