I think the farhad column is useful in that it shows that people are perfectly capable of making the “wrong” (honestly he seems pretty low on the risk spectrum for gatherings) decision even if they have all the relevant information, financial security etc
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I remember the NSA "hop" discussions after Snowden revelations. Turns out NSA could go three hops from an initial contact! And I remember trying to explain to people what three hops could mean and blowing their minds with how large it got, how quickly. It's not intuitive.
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the changes made (sneakily?) to the ending post publication would have changed the response too. in particular the detail of dining outdoors & not staying in the home of the parents including one 70 something diabetic dad
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I'm genuinely lamenting how we didn't communicate this better over the summer: go have your backyard Thanksgiving especially with elderly relatives now. People are low in reserves just when they need it most. I wrote about it here:https://zeynep.substack.com/p/balancing-epistemic-humility-and …
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I mean it was certainly a weird column. The first half about the bubble was useful. And the second half about his decision to see his family while taking a *lot* of precautions is defensible. When you fuse those together into one column though it sets a strange tone.
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Right, the unedited version (the one everyone reacted to) did not have a lot of precautions. It was "we'll drive" and "we'll pull the kids for one week" and "look into testing". No two week quarantine afterwards (risking his own bubble!), no outdoor dinner, no staying elsewhere..
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And no plans to reduce their exposure. The article is similar to any mask deniers' analysis or lockdown opponent. It purports to be a thoughtful, evidence based decision. But, it is at heart a denial of medical expertise to elevate an individual's 'feelings' over community safety
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