I think the farhad column is useful in that it shows that people are perfectly capable of making the “wrong” (honestly he seems pretty low on the risk spectrum for gatherings) decision even if they have all the relevant information, financial security etc
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I think people have an intuitive grasp of network theory it’s just the implications of interconnectedness and the amount of trust and randomness is hard to process
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They changed some details? Yikes. Isolating for two weeks in advance? It was one week when I read it. And I don't recall any mention of the meal being outdoors.
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They basically rewrote the ending.
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It was even weirder though. The first half of the article seemed like it was trying (to your point) to help make it *more* understandable for people how huge their “bubbles” really are. I didn’t even finish the article assuming I knew where it was going, but then, plot twist.
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I thought so too and was getting a bit annoyed. Unless you're in an actual bubble there's some equilibrium infection rate and there's an activity-dependent per-hour risk associated with being around people without a mark. Population size is irrelevant.
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I think people understand pretty well their social bubbles are not pristine. It's mostly a euphemism to say "everybody's being *pretty* careful here, right?". Or it's hygenie theater to defend the choice to see other people in person when you think you might get scolded for it.
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I don’t know you talk about this topic like you’re an expert of some kind. It’s really annoying.
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Every form of prevention is partial. Masks, distance, outdoor, etc each help. Total isolation, for many, is impossible. Each step slows spread, and matters. We must all do what we are able.
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Hanging out maskless outdoors is very very low risk (arguably riskless) and not communicating that to people has been a giant public health failure.
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