When I ran these simple lagged case fatality rate (CFR) calculations last week I was surprised and troubled at how big the predicted numbers of deaths in the coming weeks were. Since then #COVID19 daily case counts have continued to rise. 1/10https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1326404864843390976 …
-
Show this thread
-
@alexismadrigal and@whet describe in much better detail the simple logic behind this calculation here: https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/11/coronavirus-death-rate-third-surge/617150/ … and they do a thorough job investigating assumptions of the method. 2/103 replies 20 retweets 102 likesShow this thread -
Ryan Tibshirani with the Carnegie Mellon Delphi Research Group very helpfully did an independent replication of the method here: https://htmlpreview.github.io/?https://github.com/cmu-delphi/covidcast-modeling/blob/master/cfr_analysis/cfr_analysis.html …. 3/10
1 reply 5 retweets 53 likesShow this thread -
If we look at Rt in the last couple of weeks there's very little evidence of reductions in transmission rate at the US level. Data from https://rt.live/ . 4/10pic.twitter.com/5cLum8Opxc
4 replies 9 retweets 64 likesShow this thread -
You can see this clearly by looking at daily cases from
@COVID19Tracking on a log scale for each state. The solid lines show 7-day average of state-level case counts and the dashed lines show simple linear-on-a-log-scale fits. Straight lines indicate exponential growth. 5/10pic.twitter.com/h5FCsTpJGa
4 replies 39 retweets 121 likesShow this thread -
Though I would note that North Dakota seems to perhaps be slowing down in transmission rate after perhaps ~30% of state has been infected. Figure from
@youyanggu's https://covid19-projections.com/ . 6/10pic.twitter.com/HHXrhOCMeA
7 replies 13 retweets 83 likesShow this thread -
The logic of the lagged CFR calculation is that a fraction of individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 will succumb to their disease but that this takes time to occur and to be reported. We still expect 1.5% to 2.0% of cases to succumb and be reported 22 days later. 7/10pic.twitter.com/NtymVYZgpf
4 replies 20 retweets 80 likesShow this thread -
If this is used for forward projection to convert cases reported today into deaths reported 22 days from now we get the following. Here, 7-day average of daily reported deaths is shown as solid red line and 22-day lookahead projection from cases is shown as dashed gray line. 8/10pic.twitter.com/9powBM1bJx
11 replies 90 retweets 196 likesShow this thread -
You can see that this simple projection has matched well since August. It predicts >2000 deaths per day starting in December. I really hope I'm wrong here and we see CFR drop in the coming weeks, but I don't see any obvious reasons to expect a sudden change in CFR. 9/10
11 replies 41 retweets 158 likesShow this thread -
Even if this short-term outcome is "baked into" already acquired infections, we can still do our best to reduce onward transmission.
@zeynep expresses this extremely cogently (as always) here: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/11/lock-yourself-down-now/617106/ …. 10/1015 replies 50 retweets 212 likesShow this thread
zeynep tufekci Retweeted The COVID Tracking Project
We’re going to hit your calculations.
https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1329589465573187587 …
zeynep tufekci added,
-
-
This Tweet is unavailable.
-
No. They assume the CFR will remain the same, but if hospitals are overrun the CFR has the potential to skyrocket.
0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
End of conversation
-
-
-
I've been worrying about winter holidays since the July spikes.0 replies 0 retweets 1 likeThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.