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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 19 Nov 2020

      Trevor Bedford Retweeted Trevor Bedford

      When I ran these simple lagged case fatality rate (CFR) calculations last week I was surprised and troubled at how big the predicted numbers of deaths in the coming weeks were. Since then #COVID19 daily case counts have continued to rise. 1/10https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1326404864843390976 …

      Trevor Bedford added,

      Trevor BedfordVerified account @trvrb
      After posting about sharply rising #COVID19 cases Friday, there were multiple replies to the effect of "but deaths aren't going up". As should be obvious to most at this point, (reported) deaths lag (reported) cases. This thread investigates. 1/8 https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1324891866366537728 …
      Show this thread
      25 replies 181 retweets 476 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 19 Nov 2020

      @alexismadrigal and @whet describe in much better detail the simple logic behind this calculation here: https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/11/coronavirus-death-rate-third-surge/617150/ … and they do a thorough job investigating assumptions of the method. 2/10

      3 replies 20 retweets 102 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 19 Nov 2020

      Ryan Tibshirani with the Carnegie Mellon Delphi Research Group very helpfully did an independent replication of the method here: https://htmlpreview.github.io/?https://github.com/cmu-delphi/covidcast-modeling/blob/master/cfr_analysis/cfr_analysis.html …. 3/10

      1 reply 5 retweets 53 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 19 Nov 2020

      If we look at Rt in the last couple of weeks there's very little evidence of reductions in transmission rate at the US level. Data from https://rt.live/ . 4/10pic.twitter.com/5cLum8Opxc

      4 replies 9 retweets 64 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 19 Nov 2020

      You can see this clearly by looking at daily cases from @COVID19Tracking on a log scale for each state. The solid lines show 7-day average of state-level case counts and the dashed lines show simple linear-on-a-log-scale fits. Straight lines indicate exponential growth. 5/10pic.twitter.com/h5FCsTpJGa

      4 replies 39 retweets 121 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 19 Nov 2020

      Though I would note that North Dakota seems to perhaps be slowing down in transmission rate after perhaps ~30% of state has been infected. Figure from @youyanggu's https://covid19-projections.com/ . 6/10pic.twitter.com/HHXrhOCMeA

      7 replies 13 retweets 83 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 19 Nov 2020

      The logic of the lagged CFR calculation is that a fraction of individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 will succumb to their disease but that this takes time to occur and to be reported. We still expect 1.5% to 2.0% of cases to succumb and be reported 22 days later. 7/10pic.twitter.com/NtymVYZgpf

      4 replies 20 retweets 80 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 19 Nov 2020

      If this is used for forward projection to convert cases reported today into deaths reported 22 days from now we get the following. Here, 7-day average of daily reported deaths is shown as solid red line and 22-day lookahead projection from cases is shown as dashed gray line. 8/10pic.twitter.com/9powBM1bJx

      11 replies 90 retweets 196 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 19 Nov 2020

      You can see that this simple projection has matched well since August. It predicts >2000 deaths per day starting in December. I really hope I'm wrong here and we see CFR drop in the coming weeks, but I don't see any obvious reasons to expect a sudden change in CFR. 9/10

      11 replies 41 retweets 158 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 19 Nov 2020

      Even if this short-term outcome is "baked into" already acquired infections, we can still do our best to reduce onward transmission. @zeynep expresses this extremely cogently (as always) here: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/11/lock-yourself-down-now/617106/ …. 10/10

      15 replies 50 retweets 212 likes
      Show this thread
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 19 Nov 2020
      Replying to @trvrb

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted The COVID Tracking Project

      We’re going to hit your calculations. 😢https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1329589465573187587 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      4 charts showing US COVID-19 metrics as of November 19. Today, the US saw 1.8M tests, 183k cases, 81k currently hospitalized, and 1,971 deaths. The tests, cases, and hospitalized were record highs.
      The COVID Tracking ProjectVerified account @COVID19Tracking
      Our daily update is published. States reported 1.8 million tests, 183k cases, and 81k people currently hospitalized with COVID-19. Reported deaths were 1,971, the highest since May 7. Test, case, and hospitalization counts broke all-time records today. pic.twitter.com/PlHHvYdIMj
      Show this thread
      6:51 PM - 19 Nov 2020
      • 19 Likes
      • Gayfetus Wanda dichondra David Foulser Jennifer Nairne NeophyteCA
      1 reply 0 retweets 19 likes
        1. This Tweet is unavailable.
        2. Andre Kessler‏ @akessler 19 Nov 2020
          Replying to @BRok_Horrible @zeynep @trvrb

          No. They assume the CFR will remain the same, but if hospitals are overrun the CFR has the potential to skyrocket.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. End of conversation
        1. DragonPharmD  💙‏ @DragonPharm 19 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @trvrb

          😥 I've been worrying about winter holidays since the July spikes.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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