No they are not, and that's exactly the problem. For weather, we have an enormous amount of data, every day, relentless opportunities for calibration, atmospheric physics and a chance to test things all the time. There are 12-13 presidential elections on which we base models.
If we are evaluating expectations and people's interpretations of forecasts. What percent of people do you think were expecting an election that could go the other way if 0.2% of the votes were switched?
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Well, in the last YouGov/Economist poll, 40% of respondents said they thought Biden would win, 39% said they thought Trump would win, 21% were not sure. So collectively, that group was expecting an extraordinarily close election.
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