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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Nov 2020
      Replying to @simon_bazelon @HenryPorters and

      No they are not, and that's exactly the problem. For weather, we have an enormous amount of data, every day, relentless opportunities for calibration, atmospheric physics and a chance to test things all the time. There are 12-13 presidential elections on which we base models.

      1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
    3. James Surowiecki‏Verified account @JamesSurowiecki 13 Nov 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @simon_bazelon and

      OK, but even if true, that's not the same as saying "human events are not probabilistic." Betting odds are exceptionally good at forecasting the outcomes of horse races, for instance, which are the product of human-animal interactions.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. James Surowiecki‏Verified account @JamesSurowiecki 13 Nov 2020
      Replying to @JamesSurowiecki @zeynep and

      And they're v. good at forecasting point spreads in NFL games, which are entirely human events. Obviously, there are boundaries around those kinds of events that don't apply to elections, and a lot more data to work with.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    5. James Surowiecki‏Verified account @JamesSurowiecki 13 Nov 2020
      Replying to @JamesSurowiecki @zeynep and

      But the point is that some human events with uncertain outcomes are, in fact, probabilistically predictable. Not entirely clear why elections would be different, if we had more data and better data to work with.

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Nov 2020
      Replying to @JamesSurowiecki @simon_bazelon and

      "If we had more and better data" is doing a lot of work here. Plus, horses don't have a stake and means of changing/influencing the betting odds. Plus, there is a lot of stochastic but consequential events outside the model (weather? last-minute scandal?) plus winner-takes-all.

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    7. James Surowiecki‏Verified account @JamesSurowiecki 13 Nov 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @simon_bazelon and

      Sure, but the same is true of any sporting event - in fact, in sports you have things that happen during the event (injuries) that can profoundly alter outcomes. Yet in probabilistic terms, overall forecasts are still exceptionally good.

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Nov 2020
      Replying to @JamesSurowiecki @simon_bazelon and

      If sports events occurred every four years and our measurements were as off as our polls are (because we asked the athletes who had a stake in the answer) they wouldn't be.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. James Surowiecki‏Verified account @JamesSurowiecki 13 Nov 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @simon_bazelon and

      I guess. If it were really as impossible to forecast as you're suggesting, I don't understand why citizen surveys (and betting markets) have tended to be good predictors of what percentage of the popular vote each candidate would get over the past 30 years.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    10. James Surowiecki‏Verified account @JamesSurowiecki 13 Nov 2020
      Replying to @JamesSurowiecki @zeynep and

      Everyone's freaking out about how wrong all the forecasts were this time around. Then you look at Pollyvote's estimate of what prediction markets forecast, and they had Biden getting 52.2% of the two-party vote, Trump 47.8%.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Nov 2020
      Replying to @JamesSurowiecki @simon_bazelon and

      If we are evaluating expectations and people's interpretations of forecasts. What percent of people do you think were expecting an election that could go the other way if 0.2% of the votes were switched?

      7:28 AM - 13 Nov 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. James Surowiecki‏Verified account @JamesSurowiecki 13 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @simon_bazelon and

          Well, in the last YouGov/Economist poll, 40% of respondents said they thought Biden would win, 39% said they thought Trump would win, 21% were not sure. So collectively, that group was expecting an extraordinarily close election.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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