These probabilities are generally pretty calibrated! https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/us-senate-elections/ …pic.twitter.com/LKMgGCKP1G
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If sports events occurred every four years and our measurements were as off as our polls are (because we asked the athletes who had a stake in the answer) they wouldn't be.
I guess. If it were really as impossible to forecast as you're suggesting, I don't understand why citizen surveys (and betting markets) have tended to be good predictors of what percentage of the popular vote each candidate would get over the past 30 years.
Everyone's freaking out about how wrong all the forecasts were this time around. Then you look at Pollyvote's estimate of what prediction markets forecast, and they had Biden getting 52.2% of the two-party vote, Trump 47.8%.
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