Skip to content
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • Moments Moments Moments, current page.

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
Verified account
@zeynep

Tweets

zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

Tweets

  • © 2022 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. actual living booster vax advocate‏ @TJ__Murphy 13 Nov 2020
      Replying to @SolomonMg @davidshor and

      How about the range of expected electoral votes, without the midpoint estimate?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Nov 2020
      Replying to @TJ__Murphy @SolomonMg and

      How about not adding scientism to unknown unknown uncertainty? The current result is separated by .2% of the total votes in a few states. A few mildly bad weather incidents... Why pretend we can model something like this—rare event, unreliable data—when we don't have the tools.

      2 replies 1 retweet 8 likes
    3. (((David Shor)))‏Verified account @davidshor 13 Nov 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @TJ__Murphy and

      These probabilities are generally pretty calibrated! https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/us-senate-elections/ …pic.twitter.com/LKMgGCKP1G

      2 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
    4. This Tweet is unavailable.
    5. This Tweet is unavailable.
    6. This Tweet is unavailable.
    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Nov 2020
      Replying to @simon_bazelon @HenryPorters and

      No they are not, and that's exactly the problem. For weather, we have an enormous amount of data, every day, relentless opportunities for calibration, atmospheric physics and a chance to test things all the time. There are 12-13 presidential elections on which we base models.

      1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
    8. James Surowiecki‏Verified account @JamesSurowiecki 13 Nov 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @simon_bazelon and

      OK, but even if true, that's not the same as saying "human events are not probabilistic." Betting odds are exceptionally good at forecasting the outcomes of horse races, for instance, which are the product of human-animal interactions.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    9. James Surowiecki‏Verified account @JamesSurowiecki 13 Nov 2020
      Replying to @JamesSurowiecki @zeynep and

      And they're v. good at forecasting point spreads in NFL games, which are entirely human events. Obviously, there are boundaries around those kinds of events that don't apply to elections, and a lot more data to work with.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    10. James Surowiecki‏Verified account @JamesSurowiecki 13 Nov 2020
      Replying to @JamesSurowiecki @zeynep and

      But the point is that some human events with uncertain outcomes are, in fact, probabilistically predictable. Not entirely clear why elections would be different, if we had more data and better data to work with.

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Nov 2020
      Replying to @JamesSurowiecki @simon_bazelon and

      "If we had more and better data" is doing a lot of work here. Plus, horses don't have a stake and means of changing/influencing the betting odds. Plus, there is a lot of stochastic but consequential events outside the model (weather? last-minute scandal?) plus winner-takes-all.

      6:38 AM - 13 Nov 2020
      • 5 Likes
      • Andrew "NFT Hate Account" Davis 🤺 🐉 🍩 ⚰️ Connor Tearney Chad Olson Mark G 🌵 Henry Porter
      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. James Surowiecki‏Verified account @JamesSurowiecki 13 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @simon_bazelon and

          Sure, but the same is true of any sporting event - in fact, in sports you have things that happen during the event (injuries) that can profoundly alter outcomes. Yet in probabilistic terms, overall forecasts are still exceptionally good.

          3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. James Surowiecki‏Verified account @JamesSurowiecki 13 Nov 2020
          Replying to @JamesSurowiecki @zeynep and

          Structurally, elections are like games: they have rules, a set number of players, a winner and loser(s), an ending point with a clear definition of what victory means. Yes, there are many more variables than in, say, a horse race. But in principle, they should be forecastable.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @JamesSurowiecki and

          Not everything can be modeled well, is the point. Ideally, you need a better understanding of mechanisms, ways of dealing with endogeneity, good data (!)... Less reflexivity, frequent events to allow calibration, fewer sources of correlated error, less coupled tipping points...

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
          Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
          Undo

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2022 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Cookies
        • Ads info