While sympathetic to critiques of probabilistic election forecasts by (eg) @SolomonMg @zeynep @ylelkes @seanjwestwood, I get hung up on: Do they really go away? Or just get less attention? What substitutes?
A recent addition to this debate:
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/11/12/can-we-stop-talking-about-how-were-better-off-without-election-forecasting/ …
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It’s super easy to predict most congressional elections and effective N is lower due to correlation across races
End of conversation
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OK, but even if true, that's not the same as saying "human events are not probabilistic." Betting odds are exceptionally good at forecasting the outcomes of horse races, for instance, which are the product of human-animal interactions.
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And they're v. good at forecasting point spreads in NFL games, which are entirely human events. Obviously, there are boundaries around those kinds of events that don't apply to elections, and a lot more data to work with.
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