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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. actual living booster vax advocate‏ @TJ__Murphy 13 Nov 2020
      Replying to @SolomonMg @davidshor and

      How about the range of expected electoral votes, without the midpoint estimate?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Nov 2020
      Replying to @TJ__Murphy @SolomonMg and

      How about not adding scientism to unknown unknown uncertainty? The current result is separated by .2% of the total votes in a few states. A few mildly bad weather incidents... Why pretend we can model something like this—rare event, unreliable data—when we don't have the tools.

      2 replies 1 retweet 8 likes
    3. (((David Shor)))‏Verified account @davidshor 13 Nov 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @TJ__Murphy and

      These probabilities are generally pretty calibrated! https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/us-senate-elections/ …pic.twitter.com/LKMgGCKP1G

      2 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
    4. Sol Messing‏ @SolomonMg 13 Nov 2020
      Replying to @davidshor @zeynep and

      Sorta. But these aren’t independent and they are easier than the presidential/battleground, which is the $-maker. There’s a reasonable argument that we should really only consider 538 predicted 3/4 elections which obviously isn’t enough data to say much that’s meaningful.

      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. (((David Shor)))‏Verified account @davidshor 13 Nov 2020
      Replying to @SolomonMg @zeynep and

      Would you have the same objection to the media quoting betting odds?

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    6. Sol Messing‏ @SolomonMg 13 Nov 2020
      Replying to @davidshor @zeynep and

      My suspicion is that we’d see the same issues w betting odds assuming 1. We’re still taking about the odds one pres candidate wins 2. #s provided in terms of probability (rather than say 1:17) 3. They are regarded as predictive Actually 1 & 2 are prob enough

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    7. (((David Shor)))‏Verified account @davidshor 13 Nov 2020
      Replying to @SolomonMg @zeynep and

      There are two objections in this thread. 1) That people inherently cannot be trusted to ingest probabilities, and 2) That election models are unscientific

      2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
    8. (((David Shor)))‏Verified account @davidshor 13 Nov 2020
      Replying to @davidshor @SolomonMg and

      For (1), I think at some point you have to treat readers like adults and do your best to tell them the thing they want to know, (2) I forecast elections for a living and do think that Nate is very good at making election odds

      1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes
    9. (((David Shor)))‏Verified account @davidshor 13 Nov 2020
      Replying to @davidshor @SolomonMg and

      More on 1: The idea here is that telling people probabilities lowers turnout. But in the real world, consuming political news coverage probably boosts turnout. The rise of election models has coincided with the largest increase in turnout in decades!

      3 replies 2 retweets 12 likes
    10. (((David Shor)))‏Verified account @davidshor 13 Nov 2020
      Replying to @davidshor @SolomonMg and

      But I’m more open to paternalism with TV. If the claim here is that TV news shouldn’t take about election models I think I’d probably agree with that.

      2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Nov 2020
      Replying to @davidshor @SolomonMg and

      People can understand probabilities if we present them with the real uncertainty, which, for presidential elections is two giant overlapping shaded areas. A precise number is miscommunication at this point. We should de-prioritize them (campaigns and gamblers aren't my concern).

      5:19 AM - 13 Nov 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 14 Likes
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      1 reply 1 retweet 14 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @davidshor and

          As for turnout etc, I think it has differential effects but my point is we're miscommunicating about them so people are making strategic decisions based on knowledge/certainty that they think is there, but isn't. "Both outcomes seem quite possible" isn't satisfactory but is true.

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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