While sympathetic to critiques of probabilistic election forecasts by (eg) @SolomonMg @zeynep @ylelkes @seanjwestwood, I get hung up on: Do they really go away? Or just get less attention? What substitutes?
A recent addition to this debate:
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/11/12/can-we-stop-talking-about-how-were-better-off-without-election-forecasting/ …
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That's my point. Emphasize the uncertainty.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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These probabilities are generally pretty calibrated! https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/us-senate-elections/ …pic.twitter.com/LKMgGCKP1G
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Sorta. But these aren’t independent and they are easier than the presidential/battleground, which is the $-maker. There’s a reasonable argument that we should really only consider 538 predicted 3/4 elections which obviously isn’t enough data to say much that’s meaningful.
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