While sympathetic to critiques of probabilistic election forecasts by (eg) @SolomonMg @zeynep @ylelkes @seanjwestwood, I get hung up on: Do they really go away? Or just get less attention? What substitutes?
A recent addition to this debate:
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/11/12/can-we-stop-talking-about-how-were-better-off-without-election-forecasting/ …
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Replying to @deaneckles @SolomonMg and
I honestly don’t have a ton of patience for it. People want to know who’s going to win, survey experiments aside, trying to ban people from using probabilities to explain things to the public is silly and not going to make things better.
1 reply 1 retweet 19 likes -
Replying to @davidshor @deaneckles and
People want to know the current score and probability is a shitty way to tell them. Why not expected electoral votes?
2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
Who’s banning them? I think we should explain their massive uncertainty and that, in truth, we don’t know. They miscommunicate either way. Given the problems with polling—that I don’t know of a way to fix yet—the truth is we’re not forecasting presidential election really.
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