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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Sadie Gurman

      The problems outlined here, especially non-random low trust of pollsters, are not fixable by demographic weights. Or any method I can think of—besides already knowing the answer. Not amount of talent or effort can model this. Sometimes one can guess right. Sometimes not.https://twitter.com/sgurman/status/1324150511323500546 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Sadie GurmanVerified account @sgurman
      Some believe a distrust of institutions is more pervasive than anticipated across many voter groups, and that it leads conservative voters to avoid participating in polls in disproportionate numbers. The story everyone wants to read by ⁦@aaronzitner⁩ https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-went-wrong-with-the-polls-this-year-11604536409 …
      14 replies 20 retweets 141 likes
      Show this thread
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Nov 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Nate Silver

      Nice denominator except that you barely need polls to call about 40 of those states. Of the remaining 10, the polls are off by large numbers systematically in practically all of them. (Some got the coin toss right! Very reassuring!)https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324379322740867073 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Nate SilverVerified account @NateSilver538
      And a lot of it is because of the blue shift in late-counted ballots. If we go to bed at 1am on Wednesday and polls have called 48/50 states correctly and Biden's won the popular vote by 5.3 points or something, I don't think there's a "polls blew it again!" narrative.
      Show this thread
      10 replies 27 retweets 316 likes
      Show this thread
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Nov 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Kevin Robillard  🇺🇸

      Empirical proof for a possibility I had mentioned in my articles. The increasing certainty people felt over Biden's presidency might well have been one of the factors that cost Democrats the Senate.https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1325823456680808450 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Kevin Robillard  🇺🇸Verified account @Robillard
      A key point: Over the final month, GOP internal polling showed voters in red states started to believe Biden was likely to win the presidency. As they did, their willingness to vote for Democratic Senate candidates down-ballot plummeted. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/how-democrats-senate-dreams-crumbled_n_5fa8914fc5b623bfac5164a9?d6f … pic.twitter.com/TR1Pq90S2M
      Show this thread
      8 replies 66 retweets 188 likes
      Show this thread
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Nov 2020

      Cunningham just conceded the NC Senate. Look, the things wrong with our polls are not fixable by any known method. Pollsters may guess the post-hoc weights right here and there, but the uncertainty is giant and structural. What then is another question. First, let’s face reality.pic.twitter.com/FyOnafGMbL

      8 replies 18 retweets 113 likes
      Show this thread
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Nov 2020

      Collins won ME by almost 10%. The most damning part of these misses is they’re in the same systematic direction as the 2016 misses—so you know the pollsters tried to correct for it. They still missed big. We can’t model and weight dark matter electorate with these response rates.pic.twitter.com/9F93mdYvDY

      40 replies 112 retweets 787 likes
      Show this thread
    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 11 Nov 2020

      I like all the "why were the polls were so systematically wrong *again*" stories coming out, but here's the part that keeps getting skipped. The problems people are identifying are all plausible AND not fixable by any known method like weighting. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/upshot/polls-what-went-wrong.html …pic.twitter.com/CgA65TFg1V

      3 replies 15 retweets 69 likes
      Show this thread
    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 11 Nov 2020

      I'm just going to put an excerpt here from my NYT piece on why polls and forecasts were even less trustworthy in 2020 I published *before* the election. I'm not making post-hoc claims here. (Current text updated a bit now to reflect that's what happened) https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/01/opinion/election-forecasts-modeling-flaws.html …pic.twitter.com/txR41T6G7I

      4 replies 7 retweets 59 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Judd Legum‏Verified account @JuddLegum 11 Nov 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      What do you think of the notion that answering a poll has become a performance that is different from voting?People know their answers will be parsed and analyzed and help determine the narrative so they might provide a different answer than they provide in a voting booth.

      3 replies 2 retweets 10 likes
    9. Judd Legum‏Verified account @JuddLegum 11 Nov 2020
      Replying to @JuddLegum @zeynep

      I'm not saying a significant number of people are lying but perhaps polling in 2020 is just different than voting.

      2 replies 2 retweets 10 likes
    10. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 11 Nov 2020
      Replying to @JuddLegum

      We have a ton of things breaking polling *and* we have a ton of things that break forecasting. One of them seems definitely to be the cultural role they play. Plausible enthusiastic dems were more likely to answer, hostile Rs less so. Problem is both unknowable and unfixable.

      2 replies 2 retweets 20 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 11 Nov 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @JuddLegum

      I don’t understand the resistance to acknowledging that the many theories of poll/forecast failure are fine and plausible but few of them give us a way to confirm the theory fix the problem. So what you say is plausible, among other factors. But what then?

      8:57 AM - 11 Nov 2020
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      2 replies 0 retweets 16 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Judd Legum‏Verified account @JuddLegum 11 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          I don't actually see it as a huge problem for anyone other than campaign operatives. The public doesn't really need to know the winner of an election in advance. Coverage should focus on substance.

          5 replies 8 retweets 81 likes
        3. John Panzer‏ @jpanzer 11 Nov 2020
          Replying to @JuddLegum @zeynep

          Other than knowing where to efficiently devote your time and money to as a citizen trying to save democracy, sure.

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. jesse‏ @Neon_Jesse 11 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @JuddLegum

          "Falsifiability" is an underappreciated concept here. People need to take it more seriously and understand why it matters when discussing questions like forecasting/predicting.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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