The problems outlined here, especially non-random low trust of pollsters, are not fixable by demographic weights. Or any method I can think of—besides already knowing the answer. Not amount of talent or effort can model this. Sometimes one can guess right. Sometimes not.https://twitter.com/sgurman/status/1324150511323500546 …
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I don't actually see it as a huge problem for anyone other than campaign operatives. The public doesn't really need to know the winner of an election in advance. Coverage should focus on substance.
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Other than knowing where to efficiently devote your time and money to as a citizen trying to save democracy, sure.
End of conversation
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"Falsifiability" is an underappreciated concept here. People need to take it more seriously and understand why it matters when discussing questions like forecasting/predicting.
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