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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020

      Updated my pre-election op-ed on the case for ignoring forecasts. I know, I know. But there's the future. We can't poll with enough certainty and precision; we can't do good models of events that happen only once every four years; it distorts the process https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/01/opinion/election-forecasts-modeling-flaws.html …pic.twitter.com/ylgVjF1UYW

      3 replies 26 retweets 141 likes
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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020

      Now people are telling me that the problem isn't the model, it's that polls are off (again). Well, yeah. I wrote that in the piece. Why then are we so focused on forecasts that don't have reliable data and whose models can only be evaluated once every four years—i.e not really?

      22 replies 13 retweets 253 likes
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    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020

      So it’s now: okay the polls were off but we will weight the polls better next time. Next time!!! The undercount weren’t “shy” or necessarily suffering from social desirability. Some of them think of the pollsters as the cultural enemy. Good luck modeling that void with weights.🙄

      18 replies 27 retweets 327 likes
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    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Sadie Gurman

      The problems outlined here, especially non-random low trust of pollsters, are not fixable by demographic weights. Or any method I can think of—besides already knowing the answer. Not amount of talent or effort can model this. Sometimes one can guess right. Sometimes not.https://twitter.com/sgurman/status/1324150511323500546 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Sadie GurmanVerified account @sgurman
      Some believe a distrust of institutions is more pervasive than anticipated across many voter groups, and that it leads conservative voters to avoid participating in polls in disproportionate numbers. The story everyone wants to read by ⁦@aaronzitner⁩ https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-went-wrong-with-the-polls-this-year-11604536409 …
      14 replies 20 retweets 141 likes
      Show this thread
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Nov 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Nate Silver

      Nice denominator except that you barely need polls to call about 40 of those states. Of the remaining 10, the polls are off by large numbers systematically in practically all of them. (Some got the coin toss right! Very reassuring!)https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324379322740867073 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Nate SilverVerified account @NateSilver538
      And a lot of it is because of the blue shift in late-counted ballots. If we go to bed at 1am on Wednesday and polls have called 48/50 states correctly and Biden's won the popular vote by 5.3 points or something, I don't think there's a "polls blew it again!" narrative.
      Show this thread
      10 replies 27 retweets 316 likes
      Show this thread
    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Nov 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Kevin Robillard  🇺🇸

      Empirical proof for a possibility I had mentioned in my articles. The increasing certainty people felt over Biden's presidency might well have been one of the factors that cost Democrats the Senate.https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1325823456680808450 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Kevin Robillard  🇺🇸Verified account @Robillard
      A key point: Over the final month, GOP internal polling showed voters in red states started to believe Biden was likely to win the presidency. As they did, their willingness to vote for Democratic Senate candidates down-ballot plummeted. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/how-democrats-senate-dreams-crumbled_n_5fa8914fc5b623bfac5164a9?d6f … pic.twitter.com/TR1Pq90S2M
      Show this thread
      8 replies 66 retweets 188 likes
      Show this thread
    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Nov 2020

      Cunningham just conceded the NC Senate. Look, the things wrong with our polls are not fixable by any known method. Pollsters may guess the post-hoc weights right here and there, but the uncertainty is giant and structural. What then is another question. First, let’s face reality.pic.twitter.com/FyOnafGMbL

      8 replies 18 retweets 113 likes
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    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Nov 2020

      Collins won ME by almost 10%. The most damning part of these misses is they’re in the same systematic direction as the 2016 misses—so you know the pollsters tried to correct for it. They still missed big. We can’t model and weight dark matter electorate with these response rates.pic.twitter.com/9F93mdYvDY

      40 replies 112 retweets 787 likes
      Show this thread
    9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 11 Nov 2020

      I like all the "why were the polls were so systematically wrong *again*" stories coming out, but here's the part that keeps getting skipped. The problems people are identifying are all plausible AND not fixable by any known method like weighting. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/upshot/polls-what-went-wrong.html …pic.twitter.com/CgA65TFg1V

      3 replies 15 retweets 69 likes
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    10. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 11 Nov 2020

      I'm just going to put an excerpt here from my NYT piece on why polls and forecasts were even less trustworthy in 2020 I published *before* the election. I'm not making post-hoc claims here. (Current text updated a bit now to reflect that's what happened) https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/01/opinion/election-forecasts-modeling-flaws.html …pic.twitter.com/txR41T6G7I

      4 replies 7 retweets 59 likes
      Show this thread
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 11 Nov 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted nathanjurgenson

      I think we have a lot of this going on. Also it’s hard for people who think of themselves as quants to admit they are now more in pundit category—feeding the horserace but without a superior empirical basis. The polls aren’t fixable by any known method. Let’s talk about that.https://twitter.com/nathanjurgenson/status/1326564758795870209 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      nathanjurgenson @nathanjurgenson
      yup. pundits want to overstate bidens win to make their pre-election predictions and tenor seem less wrong https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1326549009884827648 …
      8:49 AM - 11 Nov 2020
      • 8 Retweets
      • 80 Likes
      • Colette Washington 🇺🇸🏳️‍⚧️🎮 mr positive thinking Sahar Razavi matt JoiningUnrelatedDots Kathy Alyson Metzger Ben Ray phred
      13 replies 8 retweets 80 likes
        1. JP Pardo-Guerra‏ @pardoguerra 11 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Wait, are you telling me that Nate Silver aka Nate Tinfoil failed dramatically and is now doing the Trumpian move of saying “I’m still the greatest”? Impossible

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. Jody Shenn‏ @JodyShenn 11 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          I think we can’t really talk about that in part because of the primacy of survey-based data in a lot of areas, really makes it hard to admit it’s worthless in one of most important areas because then what about everything else.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Jody Shenn‏ @JodyShenn 11 Nov 2020
          Replying to @JodyShenn @zeynep

          (The answer is of course: know as many of the possible flaws in your data as you can, take everything with a grain of salt, and hype data only where it would still seem safe to do so after all that. But pretty limiting, nobody wants that.)

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Kamil Choudhury‏ @kchoudhu 11 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @achakrava

          The only people who were partially right were finance: over the course of the pandemic they moved from "it's gonna be Trump" to "it's going to be close, possibly favoring Biden".

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Kamil Choudhury‏ @kchoudhu 11 Nov 2020
          Replying to @kchoudhu @zeynep @achakrava

          *were in It pains me to say this, but the only incentive we currently have for inducing proper polling rigor is money. Actual pollsters (and Nate Silver) can't do the work because they're too heavily bound by the strictures of the media-infotainment complex.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Jeff Henrichs‏ @heyjebbo 11 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Fair to say there is a middle ground? Predictions were off, but not as indefensibly as the political narrative of “down 15 in PA” on election night. There’s one argument about scale of error, another about nature. To observer, sounds like folks arguing past one another.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Kevin Cockle‏ @CockleKevin 11 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Predictive power of polling is probably greater when subjects don't know they are participating in a poll. It can't be about surveys or questionnaires: polling will have to be more about revealed preference than intention. As per Dr House: "Patients always lie".

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 11 Nov 2020
          Replying to @CockleKevin

          Dr House doesn't exist.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Alexander Rudolph #JusticeforBreonna‏ @cosmicreindeer 11 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          I think you and @NateSilver538 should have a public debate on the topics of polling, forecast models, and punditry. You are both open minded experts and such a debate would be very illuminating. What do you think?

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. E.E. Reed‏ @poetryforsupper 11 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Gadamer offers a robust critique of method as a guarantee of truth in Truth and Method, 1960. The SEP has a good overview: https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/gadamer/ …pic.twitter.com/byLOt3Vtue

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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