Yes. I know electoral forecasts are one thing among many things, but it's part of a broader pattern where we focus too much on the wrong things. We just need to do better acknowledging when we honestly don't know, and when predicting is besides the point.https://twitter.com/spicerjason/status/1324036088177004544 …
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I think we have a lot of this going on. Also it’s hard for people who think of themselves as quants to admit they are now more in pundit category—feeding the horserace but without a superior empirical basis. The polls aren’t fixable by any known method. Let’s talk about that.https://twitter.com/nathanjurgenson/status/1326564758795870209 …
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What do you think of the notion that answering a poll has become a performance that is different from voting?People know their answers will be parsed and analyzed and help determine the narrative so they might provide a different answer than they provide in a voting booth.
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I'm not saying a significant number of people are lying but perhaps polling in 2020 is just different than voting.
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I wonder if pollsters should step back from cellphone/online polling and begin knocking on doors. I don't have an informed opinion here, but my superficial one is that the polling problem has little to do with Trump and more to do with the changing communications landscape.
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Consider three scenarios: A: There are no polls B: There are polls but nobody tries to model the uncertainty implied for final outcomes C: We have both polls and models. (We live in C.) In which world would you expect the least misplaced certainty? E.g. do you think A>B>C?
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