Look, if I were betting, I'd bet Biden would win, probably comfortably. He might still win, but narrowly. But I was *uncertain*. I don't think we can model rare events well. We can't poll well anymore, let alone during a pandemic. But uncertainty isn't what forecasts communicate.
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I'm just going to put an excerpt here from my NYT piece on why polls and forecasts were even less trustworthy in 2020 I published *before* the election. I'm not making post-hoc claims here. (Current text updated a bit now to reflect that's what happened) https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/01/opinion/election-forecasts-modeling-flaws.html …pic.twitter.com/txR41T6G7I
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I think we have a lot of this going on. Also it’s hard for people who think of themselves as quants to admit they are now more in pundit category—feeding the horserace but without a superior empirical basis. The polls aren’t fixable by any known method. Let’s talk about that.https://twitter.com/nathanjurgenson/status/1326564758795870209 …
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End of conversation
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It seems that most discussions only focus on sampling error and ignore other types.
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Maybe the polling affects how the campaigns decide where to put their money and energy, thereby changing the results. I hope this idea isn't news to you.
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