Shrunk to razor thin margin in Congress (history says likely to lose in 2022), maaaybe Senate (tough) but after that map says little chance for a long time, lost almost all big redistricting battles for next decade. Incumbent not conceding, his triumphant party backs him. So yep.https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1326534494971699200 …
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Fine. This was answer to people saying why are Dems concerned? If they can read reality, they should be very concerned. Look at the House—the Dem margin may be a few as ~six. Look at the state legislators—real loss, which feeds gerrymandering. Courts, too.https://twitter.com/elkmovie/status/1326549975006806020 …
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Of course, not. I just don't find self-soothing or magical thinking to be a good basis for optimism. https://twitter.com/nijusar/status/1326558612886614016 …
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Agree with all of the above, with one potential magic trick: if the Dems somehow pull off 2 GA wins, they can immediately add DC and PR as states.
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Yep: the bottom line is that the social and institutional trends which got the U.S. here are likely/sadly here to stay. Echoed in
@geoquant polisci + compsci data system: https://mailchi.mp/geoquant.com/em-ification-of-us-politics … https://mailchi.mp/geoquant.com/us-stressed-institutions-will-hold-through-turbulent-transition …Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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It’s a fair point but don’t forget it was less of a margin than that, gave DJT’s mob four years in the first place. Aren’t the current shape of Dems (especially after this DJT tantrum) far more likely to at least *try* to address+fix structural stuff than a 2017 HRC White House?
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With what tool are they doing this fixing?
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distortions of the electoral college = gerrymandering =>
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Looks like Biden won 57 Electoral votes from AZ, GA, PA, WI with about 100,000 votes. Very similar to what Trump did last time in MI, PA, WI. 2024 may well be the same, so there is a 50% chance of Ted Cruz or Cotton or maybe even Trump being the next President.
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Arguably same exact position W Bush was in 2000. Similar to Trump in 2016. Won elections with close margins in several states and lost Senate/House seats.
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Ultimately I'd be as worried if I were Republicans and I increased my # of voters by 7M and still got killled in the popular vote. Granted House and Senate maps look OK though. Feels a little like Clinton's 2nd term win
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