"Ticket-splitting" might have come not just from Biden at top voters: I know of people who could not vote for Trump, but did not want Democratic trifecta and voted for & worked hard for R senators. Also Maine: some Collins voters may have thought she'd in a Dem Senate/Prez setup.
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I like all the "why were the polls were so systematically wrong *again*" stories coming out, but here's the part that keeps getting skipped. The problems people are identifying are all plausible AND not fixable by any known method like weighting. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/upshot/polls-what-went-wrong.html …pic.twitter.com/CgA65TFg1V
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I'm just going to put an excerpt here from my NYT piece on why polls and forecasts were even less trustworthy in 2020 I published *before* the election. I'm not making post-hoc claims here. (Current text updated a bit now to reflect that's what happened) https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/01/opinion/election-forecasts-modeling-flaws.html …pic.twitter.com/txR41T6G7I
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I think we have a lot of this going on. Also it’s hard for people who think of themselves as quants to admit they are now more in pundit category—feeding the horserace but without a superior empirical basis. The polls aren’t fixable by any known method. Let’s talk about that.https://twitter.com/nathanjurgenson/status/1326564758795870209 …
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That is unreal. How did not even a single one have Collins winning?? Lol. Just insane.
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Polling by who answers the phone is not random
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Is it possible that the polls are capturing the popular vote but gerrymandering has resulted in the current results? Just wondering if that was a factor?
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Mainers predicted this-- it wasn't a surprise
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I agree. I was (sadly) not surprised that Gideon lost. But I was a little surprised that it wasn't even close.
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the reason for the size of the miss in Maine is ranked choice voting
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i agree with your other points, but wouldn't use Maine as an example because ranked choice voting makes it convoluted.
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