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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020

      "Ticket-splitting" might have come not just from Biden at top voters: I know of people who could not vote for Trump, but did not want Democratic trifecta and voted for & worked hard for R senators. Also Maine: some Collins voters may have thought she'd in a Dem Senate/Prez setup.

      8 replies 11 retweets 103 likes
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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020

      Look, if I were betting, I'd bet Biden would win, probably comfortably. He might still win, but narrowly. But I was *uncertain*. I don't think we can model rare events well. We can't poll well anymore, let alone during a pandemic. But uncertainty isn't what forecasts communicate.

      11 replies 23 retweets 300 likes
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    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Jason Spicer

      Yes. I know electoral forecasts are one thing among many things, but it's part of a broader pattern where we focus too much on the wrong things. We just need to do better acknowledging when we honestly don't know, and when predicting is besides the point.https://twitter.com/spicerjason/status/1324036088177004544 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Jason Spicer @spicerjason
      As @zeynep notes in @nytimes, this @The_JOP study's experiments show election forecasts confuse voters, reduce turnout, + change voting behavior. Simply put: publishing forecasts can change results, a variation of the observer effect. Worth pondering. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/708682 …
      5 replies 23 retweets 163 likes
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    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020

      Updated my pre-election op-ed on the case for ignoring forecasts. I know, I know. But there's the future. We can't poll with enough certainty and precision; we can't do good models of events that happen only once every four years; it distorts the process https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/01/opinion/election-forecasts-modeling-flaws.html …pic.twitter.com/ylgVjF1UYW

      3 replies 26 retweets 141 likes
      Show this thread
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020

      Now people are telling me that the problem isn't the model, it's that polls are off (again). Well, yeah. I wrote that in the piece. Why then are we so focused on forecasts that don't have reliable data and whose models can only be evaluated once every four years—i.e not really?

      22 replies 13 retweets 253 likes
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    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020

      So it’s now: okay the polls were off but we will weight the polls better next time. Next time!!! The undercount weren’t “shy” or necessarily suffering from social desirability. Some of them think of the pollsters as the cultural enemy. Good luck modeling that void with weights.🙄

      18 replies 27 retweets 327 likes
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    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Nov 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Sadie Gurman

      The problems outlined here, especially non-random low trust of pollsters, are not fixable by demographic weights. Or any method I can think of—besides already knowing the answer. Not amount of talent or effort can model this. Sometimes one can guess right. Sometimes not.https://twitter.com/sgurman/status/1324150511323500546 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Sadie GurmanVerified account @sgurman
      Some believe a distrust of institutions is more pervasive than anticipated across many voter groups, and that it leads conservative voters to avoid participating in polls in disproportionate numbers. The story everyone wants to read by ⁦@aaronzitner⁩ https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-went-wrong-with-the-polls-this-year-11604536409 …
      14 replies 20 retweets 141 likes
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    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Nov 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Nate Silver

      Nice denominator except that you barely need polls to call about 40 of those states. Of the remaining 10, the polls are off by large numbers systematically in practically all of them. (Some got the coin toss right! Very reassuring!)https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324379322740867073 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Nate SilverVerified account @NateSilver538
      And a lot of it is because of the blue shift in late-counted ballots. If we go to bed at 1am on Wednesday and polls have called 48/50 states correctly and Biden's won the popular vote by 5.3 points or something, I don't think there's a "polls blew it again!" narrative.
      Show this thread
      10 replies 27 retweets 316 likes
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    9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Nov 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Kevin Robillard  🇺🇸

      Empirical proof for a possibility I had mentioned in my articles. The increasing certainty people felt over Biden's presidency might well have been one of the factors that cost Democrats the Senate.https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1325823456680808450 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Kevin Robillard  🇺🇸Verified account @Robillard
      A key point: Over the final month, GOP internal polling showed voters in red states started to believe Biden was likely to win the presidency. As they did, their willingness to vote for Democratic Senate candidates down-ballot plummeted. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/how-democrats-senate-dreams-crumbled_n_5fa8914fc5b623bfac5164a9?d6f … pic.twitter.com/TR1Pq90S2M
      Show this thread
      8 replies 66 retweets 188 likes
      Show this thread
    10. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Nov 2020

      Cunningham just conceded the NC Senate. Look, the things wrong with our polls are not fixable by any known method. Pollsters may guess the post-hoc weights right here and there, but the uncertainty is giant and structural. What then is another question. First, let’s face reality.pic.twitter.com/FyOnafGMbL

      8 replies 18 retweets 113 likes
      Show this thread
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Nov 2020

      Collins won ME by almost 10%. The most damning part of these misses is they’re in the same systematic direction as the 2016 misses—so you know the pollsters tried to correct for it. They still missed big. We can’t model and weight dark matter electorate with these response rates.pic.twitter.com/9F93mdYvDY

      3:34 PM - 10 Nov 2020
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      40 replies 112 retweets 787 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 11 Nov 2020

          I like all the "why were the polls were so systematically wrong *again*" stories coming out, but here's the part that keeps getting skipped. The problems people are identifying are all plausible AND not fixable by any known method like weighting. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/upshot/polls-what-went-wrong.html …pic.twitter.com/CgA65TFg1V

          3 replies 15 retweets 69 likes
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        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 11 Nov 2020

          I'm just going to put an excerpt here from my NYT piece on why polls and forecasts were even less trustworthy in 2020 I published *before* the election. I'm not making post-hoc claims here. (Current text updated a bit now to reflect that's what happened) https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/01/opinion/election-forecasts-modeling-flaws.html …pic.twitter.com/txR41T6G7I

          4 replies 7 retweets 59 likes
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        4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 11 Nov 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted nathanjurgenson

          I think we have a lot of this going on. Also it’s hard for people who think of themselves as quants to admit they are now more in pundit category—feeding the horserace but without a superior empirical basis. The polls aren’t fixable by any known method. Let’s talk about that.https://twitter.com/nathanjurgenson/status/1326564758795870209 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          nathanjurgenson @nathanjurgenson
          yup. pundits want to overstate bidens win to make their pre-election predictions and tenor seem less wrong https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1326549009884827648 …
          13 replies 8 retweets 80 likes
          Show this thread
        5. End of conversation
        1. Meeks‏ @FLman1980 10 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          That is unreal. How did not even a single one have Collins winning?? Lol. Just insane.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Amy‏ @blueWRL 10 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Polling by who answers the phone is not random

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Jennifer Nairne‏ @Jenner_711 10 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Is it possible that the polls are capturing the popular vote but gerrymandering has resulted in the current results? Just wondering if that was a factor?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Ben_Franklin speaks by ventriloquist‏ @_Ben_Franklin1 10 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @DavidFeldman

          Mainers predicted this-- it wasn't a surprise

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. David Feldman‏ @DavidFeldman 10 Nov 2020
          Replying to @_Ben_Franklin1 @zeynep

          I agree. I was (sadly) not surprised that Gideon lost. But I was a little surprised that it wasn't even close.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. emily schuch‏ @emschuch 10 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          the reason for the size of the miss in Maine is ranked choice voting

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. emily schuch‏ @emschuch 10 Nov 2020
          Replying to @emschuch @zeynep

          i agree with your other points, but wouldn't use Maine as an example because ranked choice voting makes it convoluted.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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