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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Jon Murray‏Verified account @JonMurray 9 Nov 2020

      Jon Murray Retweeted Nate Silver

      538 did a pretty admirable job this time of presenting uncertainties around polling averages. I followed pretty closely & the potential for error was made very clear. But @zeynep has good criticisms rooted in the way most people view models -- and polling itself has big problems.https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1325858783923417088 …

      Jon Murray added,

      Nate SilverVerified account @NateSilver538
      The reason Biden's win probability was ~90% is precisely because he could withstand a fairly large polling error when Clinton couldn't, which is exactly what happened. Indeed, our model assumes polls are fairly error-prone. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-2020-presidential-election-forecast/ … https://t.co/tJDXcNGkXY 
      Show this thread
      2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Jesse McConnell‏ @mcconnellj 9 Nov 2020
      Replying to @JonMurray @zeynep

      Polling is in big trouble. I think it struggled to balance rural voting with suburban vs city. If you look at something like the senate race in Maine Gideon won all of the large cities and then got really outran in the more rural areas.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Jon Murray‏Verified account @JonMurray 9 Nov 2020
      Replying to @mcconnellj @zeynep

      Yeah, that's one of the really stark examples. One way I think about it is that polling is both art and science. But the more nonresponse rates go up, the more you have to pad the solid science part of it -- probability theory -- with the art of weighting etc. It gets unwieldy.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Jesse McConnell‏ @mcconnellj 9 Nov 2020
      Replying to @JonMurray @zeynep

      I totally agree. Assuming you had great response rates, and a good sample polling should still be a great indicator. I am just not sure we have either of those anymore.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Jon Murray‏Verified account @JonMurray 9 Nov 2020
      Replying to @mcconnellj @zeynep

      That's one of the points made by @zeynep in interviews/comments. When response rate is 30-40%, you can work around by reaching out to more people. When it's down to 6% or so, you start missing entire groups (espec when trust in institutions is way down). Can't model out of that.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Nov 2020
      Replying to @JonMurray @mcconnellj

      Right, and especially since we have both unreachable segments and people who are resistant to the polls because of cultural mistrust. I don't see how we fix this, structurally, without finding a new way to randomize.

      10:30 AM - 9 Nov 2020
      • 2 Likes
      • Jon Murray Jesse McConnell
      0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes

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