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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Yascha Mounk‏Verified account @Yascha_Mounk 5 Nov 2020

      Yascha Mounk Retweeted

      I'm sympathetic to the case, made by @zeynep and others, that forecasting has less value when the polls regularly produce big misses. But some forecasters, like the Nates, have avoided triumphalism and been upfront about the limitations of their models. Others, not so much... https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1324507561308114947 …

      Yascha Mounk added,

      This Tweet is unavailable.
      10 replies 3 retweets 138 likes
    2. G. Elliott Morris‏Verified account @gelliottmorris 5 Nov 2020
      Replying to @Yascha_Mounk @zeynep

      We have written a ton about the limitations of modeling and uncertainty in the source data, including an initial post-mortem of the polls that went up last night. https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/11/05/polls-and-our-forecast-model-overestimated-support-for-joe-biden … https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/11/04/post-election-post/ … https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/11/02/so-whats-with-that-claim-that-biden-has-a-96-chance-of-winning-some-thoughts-with-josh-miller/ … https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/10/28/concerns-with-our-economist-election-forecast/ …

      2 replies 0 retweets 26 likes
    3. G. Elliott Morris‏Verified account @gelliottmorris 5 Nov 2020
      Replying to @gelliottmorris @Yascha_Mounk @zeynep

      The whole point of modeling the election is to describe what could happen if the data were wrong. Our model said that even in the case of a polling/model error 2x the side of 2016, Biden would probably win. That is exactly what happened. I stand by how we covered the data.

      4 replies 2 retweets 43 likes
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Nov 2020
      Replying to @gelliottmorris @Yascha_Mounk

      I assure you that there is almost nobody out there who thinks "the whole point of modeling the election is to describe what would happen if the data were wrong." They see the 96% your model forecast, and some then act accordingly—showing up or not, splitting ticket, etc.

      8 replies 7 retweets 70 likes
    5. samriye‏ @egenist 5 Nov 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @gelliottmorris @Yascha_Mounk

      the predictive models don’t deserve the prominence they enjoy but empowering hyperactive horse race reporters to set the narrative is vastly more destructive

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Nov 2020
      Replying to @egenist @gelliottmorris @Yascha_Mounk

      They actually got more empowered by the models is my observation over the last decade! At least, before, one could see they were reading tea leaves from lawn signs and treat it more like a horoscope.

      6:14 PM - 5 Nov 2020
      • 5 Likes
      • Discover Michael Watson LBJ's Amphicar samriye Rajiv Nunna
      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
        1. samriye‏ @egenist 5 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @gelliottmorris @Yascha_Mounk

          my feeling is that the reporter - pundit axis has lost the power to set the narrative ebb of campaigns in the way they used to. Obviously replacing one form of astrology with another that has the veneer of mathematical precision may not be a good trade off

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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