I'm sympathetic to the case, made by @zeynep and others, that forecasting has less value when the polls regularly produce big misses.
But some forecasters, like the Nates, have avoided triumphalism and been upfront about the limitations of their models.
Others, not so much... https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1324507561308114947 …
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I mean, was that part of the model wrong?
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I think the idea is it makes people think their vote is unnecessary
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Ummmmmm like, she just basically, is like Saying that if ur purpse is putout polls 4 public consumption (I. E. 4 news) Then ur excuse of people misusing "polled forecast" word is bad faith If u knowinly communicate in a manner which u know will be misunderstood... Well then...
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This is a very good question, especially if the models are not open source. We do not know yet if the Number-One "X Factor" for this year, un-returned mailed ballots, was included in the various models.
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whether or not the models are open source is entirely besides the point. probably 90% of the consumers of this info don’t know what a github repo is let alone what to do with one.
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I don't think there's anything inherently bad with modeling, and my frustration is aimed at the general lack of education surrounding basic stat concepts (probability, effect sizes, and confidence intervals). At the EOD, the models are going to be decently close to predictions
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If votes all came it at some time - would it be as big of a deal?
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Where are all these high information voters that are being dissuaded from voting by
@TheEconomist ? Absurd -
Forecasts make it into headlines and tweets
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