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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Yascha Mounk‏Verified account @Yascha_Mounk 5 Nov 2020

      Yascha Mounk Retweeted

      I'm sympathetic to the case, made by @zeynep and others, that forecasting has less value when the polls regularly produce big misses. But some forecasters, like the Nates, have avoided triumphalism and been upfront about the limitations of their models. Others, not so much... https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1324507561308114947 …

      Yascha Mounk added,

      This Tweet is unavailable.
      10 replies 3 retweets 138 likes
    2. G. Elliott Morris‏Verified account @gelliottmorris 5 Nov 2020
      Replying to @Yascha_Mounk @zeynep

      We have written a ton about the limitations of modeling and uncertainty in the source data, including an initial post-mortem of the polls that went up last night. https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/11/05/polls-and-our-forecast-model-overestimated-support-for-joe-biden … https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/11/04/post-election-post/ … https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/11/02/so-whats-with-that-claim-that-biden-has-a-96-chance-of-winning-some-thoughts-with-josh-miller/ … https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/10/28/concerns-with-our-economist-election-forecast/ …

      2 replies 0 retweets 26 likes
    3. G. Elliott Morris‏Verified account @gelliottmorris 5 Nov 2020
      Replying to @gelliottmorris @Yascha_Mounk @zeynep

      The whole point of modeling the election is to describe what could happen if the data were wrong. Our model said that even in the case of a polling/model error 2x the side of 2016, Biden would probably win. That is exactly what happened. I stand by how we covered the data.

      4 replies 2 retweets 43 likes
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Nov 2020
      Replying to @gelliottmorris @Yascha_Mounk

      I assure you that there is almost nobody out there who thinks "the whole point of modeling the election is to describe what would happen if the data were wrong." They see the 96% your model forecast, and some then act accordingly—showing up or not, splitting ticket, etc.

      8 replies 7 retweets 70 likes
    5. Dorothy Fortenberry‏Verified account @Dorothy410berry 5 Nov 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @gelliottmorris @Yascha_Mounk

      "what do you think you learn from data modeling?" is actually something that could be polled and it would be good to know the results

      1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Nov 2020
      Replying to @Dorothy410berry @gelliottmorris @Yascha_Mounk

      What do you think people take away from seeing 96% chance of their candidate winning? https://www.dartmouth.edu/~seanjwestwood/papers/aggregator.pdf …

      6:10 PM - 5 Nov 2020
      • 3 Retweets
      • 29 Likes
      • Ryan Wesslen Michael Henderson Discover StephenM Alex Kaplan Benjamin Ross Times's liberation is bound up with yours Sean Clark Nic Moe
      5 replies 3 retweets 29 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Gabe The Engineer‏ @gdbassett 5 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @Dorothy410berry and

          I mean, was that part of the model wrong?

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. Do the Right Thing‏ @TFDark 5 Nov 2020
          Replying to @gdbassett @zeynep and

          I think the idea is it makes people think their vote is unnecessary

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. This Tweet is unavailable.
        2. SHG of DFW‏ @theshgofdfw 5 Nov 2020
          Replying to @toddbonzalezzz @zeynep and

          Ummmmmm like, she just basically, is like Saying that if ur purpse is putout polls 4 public consumption (I. E. 4 news) Then ur excuse of people misusing "polled forecast" word is bad faith If u knowinly communicate in a manner which u know will be misunderstood... Well then...

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Matthew Sheffield‏Verified account @mattsheffield 5 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @Dorothy410berry and

          This is a very good question, especially if the models are not open source. We do not know yet if the Number-One "X Factor" for this year, un-returned mailed ballots, was included in the various models.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Jamsheed‏ @jays_ear 5 Nov 2020
          Replying to @mattsheffield @zeynep and

          whether or not the models are open source is entirely besides the point. probably 90% of the consumers of this info don’t know what a github repo is let alone what to do with one.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. João Guassi Moreira‏ @C_Shamballa 5 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @Dorothy410berry and

          I don't think there's anything inherently bad with modeling, and my frustration is aimed at the general lack of education surrounding basic stat concepts (probability, effect sizes, and confidence intervals). At the EOD, the models are going to be decently close to predictions

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. Mary Tracy‏ @maryinsouthie 5 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @Dorothy410berry and

          If votes all came it at some time - would it be as big of a deal?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Nick Kessler‏ @NdotKess 5 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @Dorothy410berry and

          Where are all these high information voters that are being dissuaded from voting by @TheEconomist ? Absurd

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Sasha Margolis‏ @SashaMargolis 5 Nov 2020
          Replying to @NdotKess @zeynep and

          Forecasts make it into headlines and tweets

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation

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