I'm sympathetic to the case, made by @zeynep and others, that forecasting has less value when the polls regularly produce big misses.
But some forecasters, like the Nates, have avoided triumphalism and been upfront about the limitations of their models.
Others, not so much... https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1324507561308114947 …
-
This Tweet is unavailable.
-
Replying to @Yascha_Mounk
I agree the presentation was much better this time, compared to 2016. But the effect is not that different; it's subsumed into the horse-race, refreshed often as an anxiety-soother *and* the big numbers necessarily miscommunicate, and affect behavior. A forecast is a forecast.
9 replies 1 retweet 40 likes -
Replying to @zeynep @Yascha_Mounk
More more point: Let's unbundle the Nates. FiveThirtyNate has a flawed model based on flawed polls. Needle Nate actually *designed* some of the most influential polls—the NYT Sienna ones. He has legit introspection to do!
2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes -
-
-
As a guy who makes up character names for a living — the duo is top quality. NeedleNate is the better villain name tho. Which is appropriate. Nate S is always more right than folks think. The needle is evil personified.
1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
Ironically, I think the needle this time (post-election outstanding vote count estimator) was actually a good use of modeling, and gave us information that was otherwise hard to acquire. The pre-election forecasts did not.
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.
