I'm sympathetic to the case, made by @zeynep and others, that forecasting has less value when the polls regularly produce big misses.
But some forecasters, like the Nates, have avoided triumphalism and been upfront about the limitations of their models.
Others, not so much... https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1324507561308114947 …
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Replying to @Yascha_Mounk
I agree the presentation was much better this time, compared to 2016. But the effect is not that different; it's subsumed into the horse-race, refreshed often as an anxiety-soother *and* the big numbers necessarily miscommunicate, and affect behavior. A forecast is a forecast.
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Replying to @zeynep @Yascha_Mounk
More more point: Let's unbundle the Nates. FiveThirtyNate has a flawed model based on flawed polls. Needle Nate actually *designed* some of the most influential polls—the NYT Sienna ones. He has legit introspection to do!
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I don't know what anyone can do with these response rates and low-trust non-response. There is no current known way to design this better. Someone comes up with one, then we can rethink.
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